VRC 0.00% 0.4¢ volt resources limited

Games Up, page-37

  1. 223 Posts.
    Safety, you sound like a shareholder who actually wants to understand what you're invested in.

    Firstly, the PFS is the bare minimum study required before Volt can even make a decision to proceed with the project. If it doesn't stack up then it's game over. Furthermore it is clearly required before the company can hold any material discussion with offtake partners or financiers. Think of it as a bare bones business plan and currently VRC doesn't have one for producing 30ktpa. Think about this rationally, VRC is a $30M company with no business plan. Anyone buying the stock today is simply speculating that they can make money on this strategy. In respect to ASX requirements, once the PFS is complete then VRC has to announce it because it's material.

    Secondly, the original PFS is based on producing 173ktpa. It's not relevant to any person buying the stock today because it's simply a fantasy and in my view VRC chased this strategy so they could announce a huge NPV, even though it's not realistically acheiveable.

    As I have said many times on this thread, if stage 1 only produces 30ktpa then the OPEX will increase materially. On 173ktpa the OPEX in the original PFS was US$563/tonne FOB. At 30ktpa this number could easily be upwards of US$800/tonne or more.

    In respect to sale price, US$1,684 is not even close to the price you will achieve in the real market on those volumes. I can't comment specifically on the NGI deal but at face value it doesn't even look commercial. You be the judge but I'm highly skeptical and it's been addressed better by others on this thread.

    Have a chat to GPX and SVM, any of the small scale juniors and you will get some great insight into this critical but opaque part of the sector. I think VRC are more likely to sell their product for $700-800/tonne and certainly less than $1,000. This is based on my discussion with lots of people in the sector, DYOR.

    Even if VRC can produce at US$700/tonne and sell at US$900/tonne, on a run rate of 30,000 tpa you are only talking about US$6M per annum. And I think that's possibly being very optimistic. What do you value a business that makes $6M per annum pre-tax that probably requires $70-80M of CAPEX to get into production? And the Tanzanian government will now take at least 16% of those revenues.

    All of the above is probably irrelevant though because VRC have a terrible balance sheet, $1.1M of debt secured against the assets. In my view VRC is probably worth exactly that, $1.1M.

    Good luck with your research and keep an open mind.
 
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