LYC (ASX) Gang of Three...

Originally posted by toly ↑

Fuziah is now claiming that the ground water is contaminated. Next comes the comment that describes these chemicals are harmful to humans. Just another open door for continued harassment down the road...

The reality of the situation is that Lynas in Malaysia is not going to work. Even if the current hoops are hopped and the dots are crossed, the intimidation and political terrorism will continue. It's started already with Fuziah's emotional "groundwater" outburst apparently utilizing her chemical engineering prowess which of course is backed by her strong education in the social studies. Wong and Yeo have their own challenges but IMO, in aggregate they make up the formidable gang of three..

Bottom line... The only thing that will keep the gang happy is to make them happy. What is it that they really want? It is apparent that they are interested in nothing short of a complete political victory so let them have it...

A soft exit accomplishes this...

OK, the seven year soft exit plan is essentially a truce between the Malaysian government and Lynas. Lynas is allowed to operate under the current operating licensing conditions without interference from the Malaysian government until the exit is complete...

For it's part, Lynas agrees to complete operations by the end of seven years and will return the entire facility to it's original condition (Malaysia can use it to build a buggy whip factory). All waste disposal will be managed in a manner satisfactory to Malaysia, details to be worked out...

The World Trade Organization (WTO) has been known to resolve disputes between nations and might be interested in monitoring progress and ensuring all parties comply with the exit agreement...

Think of the back slapping and celebrations by the Pakatan, all nice but the the real story here is Lynas can begin to shape it's own future by gaining independence from Malaysia... My guess is that the gang of three would salivate over the prospect of an exit deal however it would be paramount to make it clear that once this action is approved it cannot be reversed...

It doesn't make sense to continue this dysfunctional relationship, the stress, the uncertainty and lack of visibility are masking the true potential of this company and when I think of the time and effort that will be spent keeping the Malaysian circus plates spinning, it really discourages me... It discourages me to know the caliber and quality of the staff is going to be wasted on immature thinking and political favors when they could be doing so much more...

A Malaysian exit would allow the diversely talented senior staff to perform productive work rather than be stifled by the instability of the current political system. Amanda could spend her time doing things like developing plans to integrate downstream manufacturers into the Lynas master plan during the relocation...

Cam (system architect) would have the time of his life creating a new state of the art RE processing facility and Andrew would have to opportunity to hone his skills practicing law once again in a nation of laws instead of playing basketball without a hoop...

Press coverage would serve to generate significant excitement and be a true feather in the cap of the hosting country (Oz?). These would be exciting and enjoyable times at Lynas as the goal post would be fixed, the playing field would be level and there would be referees at the game...

Obviously a key question includes financial feasibility and I am sure we are all interested in little or no dilution. While it is difficult to project, I would think that the significant income from the LAMP coupled with excellent credit and relations makes Japan a good potential source for reliable debt financing. (I'm open to some napkin projections)...

The share price may see a shot to the downside but an announcement that Lynas is exiting Malaysia and moving to a stable country on a permanent basis just might inspire genuine confidence in investors...

Although it may seem like we are paying a ransom, it might be time to cut losses and buy some uncomplicated production time to build the future Lynas deserves. IMO, It's a good time for Lynas to take advantage of it's technological momentum and begin to plans for expansion which may include relocation...

Yes, Malaysia is a tough pill to swallow and I know there are many details to this story to which I am not privy but I have complete confidence in Amanda's leadership. That said, we all know the Lynas story and IMO we shouldn't have to grovel, crawl and scratch our way to please the gang of three when there are other much more qualified suitors eager to embrace Lynas and become part of this new technology... JMHO...

Expand

Nice idea, but a quick look at the level of hostility and extent of manipulation by a small group of fanatics just screams such a compromise would never be agreed.

Either Malaysia puts their loonies in a bin and a PDF is agreed or Lynas ships the WLP out.

Regardless, the Board will look to the next stage of expansion elsewhere, most likely starting with C&L to supply a clean feed to LAMP1.

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(20min delay)
Last $5.93		Change -0.020(0.34%)		Mkt cap ! $5.542B

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
$6.04	$6.04	$5.93	$23.75M	3.975M

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