Gap and support?, page-44

It is very difficult to value a company like NTC which has so much potential but it also possible that NTC never win another significant contract. There is plenty of competition out there and NTC products are not superior to any other company. NTC is yet to win a significant foreign contract and all significant contracts have been domestic, i.e. Telstra, Cubic, NBN, Ausnet.

There have been many instances where NTC’s competitors have seen their share price rise significantly and fall back by more than 50%, i.e. Sierra Wireless, Novatel Wireless when they didn’t deliver on expectations. The NTC share price is setting a very high expectation and this is the third time I have seen this after following NTC since 2006.

There is also the possibility that an institutional investor is continuing to add to their position and is willing to pay whatever price to build their stake. Once that institutional investor has acquired their desired number of shares it is possible we will see a significant retrace.

The market cap is overvalued at $200M without a signed contract and I would need to see 1 or 2 contracts signed before I discontinue selling.

If anyone is willing to justify the current share price, I would be interested to see some numbers to support their thinking.