Cab, I can see what you mean but I think it might be a slightly...

Cab, I can see what you mean but I think it might be a slightly pessimistic view.
Chinese and Indian companies have been locking up juniors for a few years now - it only make sense for them to control as much of their supply as they can but the vast majority of the iron ore and coal supply is always going to be outside their control (exstrata, glencore, bhp, rio, fmg vale etc). While it looks like demand is waning IMO it is more a cyclical thing - nothing goes up in a straight line and even at -16%, iron ore is still at historically high prices. Medium to long term the majors are still gearing up to service a lot more demand. As for Vales super ships being banned it seems to me that there is politics or diplomacy at play. Maybe Vale were insensitive in the way they went about it. IMO if Vale can supply cheaper iron ore from freight savings the chinese will buy it, they are a fairly pragmatic people from what I can tell. Europe and America are basket cases but I don't think America will actually see a recession and Germany will continue to pump out cars and other steel things while the euro is low (once again IMO). I hope I'm not just looking at what I want to see and appreciate other views to mull over ... as for VMS the DSO is really just the icing and trading opportunities are good (if you're on the right side of the trade of course)