Hi Taddy, I'm sorry I've only just noticed your question. I...

Hi Taddy, I'm sorry I've only just noticed your question. I don't often return to old threads so if you have a question and I don't respond you may need to put it right infront of me.

SIR and LYC, the gaps have little in common. The SIR gap occured aften a long period of consolidation. The gap is classed as an outside gap and that particular gap generally has a fill rate of around 30%. You will notice however that the continuation gap from that breakout that was left at 47 cents was filled from T3, that type of gap has a fill rate closer to 65%. There is also an inside gap on SIR at 112 which has a very high probabilty of being filled.


The type of gap on Lynas from 60 cents is classed as an outside gap, but only just. It has occured in a sustained downtrend which is significantly different to the scenario of the SIR gap. That meant that while the likelyhood of a fill wasn't above 90%, it is in the 60% range. The lynas chart if it completes the fill, especially with the overhead gap, will look much much better.

Too many people seem to look at gaps and put them all in the same basket without the slightest clue. That's akin to saying all stocks that pay a dividend will always go up. Neither are correct. Just a quick note to those that think gaps are only important because of trader focus; fill rates on specific gap types pre 1950 are the same as they are now.