I understand where you're coming from capman however in a non argumentative stance in my opinion only, the focus should be primarily on oil to get revenue in asap. I dont think the company should be wasting too much time, drilling money/bond facility draw down for CBM wells at this point.
Put simply - spending money to drill non near term revenue generating wells is a very bad strategical/financial decision for an array of reasons. 6-12 months of drilling CBM wells will dissipate available funds and even if they did have a high level of success with CBM it will still take several years to convert that exploration success into revenue (gas monetisation here - especially CBM is difficult and expensive), where as an oil well can be generating very significant revenue in a matter of months.
Further to that - to secure the lease areas CTP need to find success in each EP to potentially convert them into production licences and retain 100% of the package. If they do not have time to drill and find success in the permits then they could ultimately have to forfeit 50% of the permit. Not worth the risk to waste 12 months drilling CBM as a few CBM wells will secure the area. Tight global rig demand is also another concern and timing is everything here.
Id actually prefer JH mobilse to simpson next, possibly stopping by Madigan or Guinevere on the way should the seismic be completely assessed and a level of confidence apparent in these structures. CBM is competitive enough as it is here in australia and CTP does not need to enter this game right now when it has such significant oil prospects to chase. Have to agree though a few oil dusters will obviously not help - so maybe throw in a higher level gas prospect such as mt kitty or ooraminna which have proven seepage to bolster the price then focus back on oil.
Ya - I do have some calculations for the wells attached here, though have completed some more indepth ones taking into consideration potential production costs/modelling etc.
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