I've had too much red in the last hour, but here goes.
All depths are MDRT, as per MEO reporting (not SS as per previous MEO literature).
Point-1 The lowest know gas (LKG) at Heron-2 is at 4,150m, based on the lowest logged point. Since there is little contention that fields in this area are filled to spill, and the fact that a GWC has yet to be encountered at HS-1 suggests, eni are still drilling out payzone. At 7am this morning, the E109 was drilling ahead at 4,186m. So at the very least, the LKG for the Greater Heron Structure is being increased at depth. This has implications for Heron East & West structures.
Point-2 MEO's mapping (and resource estimates) indicate that the structural spill point (SSP, LCC) where Heron spills to Evans Shoal is at 4,360m, as per pg 7 of the EZdataroom farm out presentation. This would suggest that the Elang-Plover that is currently being drilled would extend another 174m to the SSP, beyond the potentially 119m of gross pay encountered to date, a grand total of 293m. Depending on where certain horizons (b/w Frigate & Elanf Formations) taper off from the North to the South fault block, a relatively high net to gross ratio can be expected.
Point-3 This is high temperature, high pressure stuff, so the risks are real, but hopefully they have been able to calibrate some of the logging equipment (and eventually the seismic to the zones encountered), to get a very good idea of the reservoir. Based on the pre-drill mapping (SLB), porosities of 12% are expected, which over a half decent intersection should flow very strongly, particularly if some fractures have been intersected.
Then there is the elusive GWC. If HS-1 is drilled to 4,360m without encountering a GWC whilst encountering shows and high resistivity, then we are home and hosed. If eni keep drilling beyond 4,360 with no GWC insight, then there will be some very significant upside.
There is not enough definitive information to call the well an unequivocal success, but the indications (reservoir rocks, gas, gas pressure, resistivity) are looking very positive and appear generally consistent with pre-drill expectations.
If I had more time I would post images correlating todays info with H-2 on the seismics (maybe oilman or iam can), but 4, 5, 7 & 8 at the following link provide a decent start.
http://www.ezdataroom.com/pdf.php?id=209
FInally, keep a lookout for liquids. This is the real kicker, at a CGR of >100, this would be a huge bonus for the partners.
Interesting few weeks coming up with TD to be reached shortly. I'm hoping they can get another core before reaching TD, hopefully from the Plover.
For the sake of MEO (management, techos and all the team) and all of us shareholders, I wish everybody the best of luck. Nothing in the oil and gas game is a sure bet, but to date this is all going "according to plan". This is where a kick ass rig like the E109 and a seasoned operator like eni are king. They don't "muck around", try and cut corners like some of the lower cost or smaller operators.
See you all on the conference call in 5 hours. Now, time to raid the cellar, again.
MEO Price at posting:
22.5¢ Sentiment: LT Buy Disclosure: Held