Sideways,
"The governing factor will be the total relative cost of upgraded fuel versus the cost of available higher ranking coal"
The ECT / Neyveli presentation back in 2012 gave figures for processed Coldry product including royalty figure of Rs 1000 which is AU$18 ....two things I did notice of the article is that they based the comparative thermal coal figure at around $90 to $95 dollars per tonne...personally I'd be running of a slightly lower grade thermal out of Indonesia at GAR 4800 at around $84 per tonne as showing for that grade on coalspot for this months as a more accurate comparison IMO as that's where it would mostly likely be sourced from.
The other thing I noticed, that on the jcoal article from late 2012 a processing cost breakdown in China gave a figure of $20 processing cost per tonne which included royalty, however there was another cost which based on mining cost, the cost of mining per tonne of lignite of a similar grade to NLCs lignite was another $8 per tonne with 1.76 tonne required...so that would mean you would have to put another $14 per tonne IMO on that 'processing cost' which in turn would give a figure of $32 per tonne of Coldry produced and comparing to an Indonesian coal of $84 per tonne
IMO that would give the likes of Neyveli at least a $50+ per tonne saving on imported thermal....might also sort some logistical issues from port to boiler too.
That relative cost of comparing upgraded fuel to thermal seems very positive IMO ; price of coal is expected to track back up into around $100 per tonne over the next couple of years as demand hots up.
$50 at least per tonne over big tonnages adds up fwiw
http://www.ectltd.com.au/wp-content/uploads/120213-Presentation-IPS-New-Delhi.pdf
http://www.jcoal.or.jp/coaldb/shiryo/material/Prof.Mochida.pdf
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