IVZ (ASX) Gas shows or no gas shows in the 200 (Post Dande)?

Originally posted by huaneng: ↑

Unfortunately we get not more often reports (- although and to be fair we cannot complain when you compare IVZ with other O&G companies) and here I try to guess, I try to interpret the current situation on the well site as of the information we have today.

1) IVZ publishes announcements only when there are substantial news.
The conclusion could be: at the moment there are no substantial news (but you never know as you know when you have not bought shares for the first time) Substantial news could have been a massive gas kick for example in my opinion and as hinted by SM. So I guess we had no massive gas kick, which would cause some stress and extra work for the rough necks but could be a very strong hint that the anticline is full of gas. So personally I am a little bit dissapointed that we did not get this strong hint although IVZ prepared themself for such a borehole situation and planned a higher mud weight.

2) Information leackages
At a drilling rig every day a report is written and usually it should be send to IVZ employees, the 20% joint venture partner in Zimbabwe and to the mining authorities in Zimbabwe. Moreover the service engineers from the service companies send every day a service report to their managers in Houston or wheresoever they have an office. Additional if SM has ordered it he can get live data from the drilling bit and from the well wheresoever you have a good internet connection. The conclusion is there are many people who know at the moment if we got already gas shows or no gas shows in the 200 formation if drilled already. Classically the spouse of a rough neck or of the mud logger would already phone the bank. And I would expect that our friends living in Zimbabwe would buy without any constraints or selling?

3) At which depth we should be now.
From the announcement from 5th of Oct 2022 we know:
"After the 13 ⅜” casing has been set in place, the blow out preventer (BOP) stack will be installed and the rig will drill ahead in the 12 ¼” intermediate hole section through the first prospective targets. The targets in the 12 ¼” hole section include the 200 (Post Dande), 250 and 350 (Dande), and 400 horizons (Forest), which will be drilled down to approximately 2,200 metres MD before running a wireline logging ..."
I guess the 13 3/8" casing is cemented already. I guess the cement is not anymore green. I guess the blow out preventer is adapted and ready for the new section. I guess they drilled the cement and the casing shoe. I guess they adapted the mud for the next section. I guess they did a formation integrity test (plus perhaps a cement bond log) And this are the reasons I guess they drill already the top of the 200 Post Dande formation now. All this steps are standard oil field practice that can be done within 10 days easily. If not, try to get another drilling rig next time.

4) Hints for gas in the Post Dande or not
If the Post Dande is a really good gas reservoir you get some very strong hints instantly already during the drilling and you do not have to wait for the planned wireline logging or even a production test (which is the ultimate proof and thats the reason that personally I would have loved to see an early drill stem test as well). When you drill: First you will see some gas shows in the mud (even with a too high mud weight), second you see a drilling break (even with a too high mudweight) third you need perhaps a higher mudweight because the reservoir is overpressured, 4th you see the cuttings and they look nice and 5th as I understand we have LWD that means on these logs you see all indrigents of a nice reservoir in the case it is a really good reserrvoir. There are more things to do like you can anlyse a sample from the gas shows which could tell a big story as well but I do not expect that a company like IVZ is prepared to do that instantly.

At the moment we do not see some greedy first buys of IVC shares on the market and I guess, I am afraid the first target the 200 Post Dande formation is no really good gas reservoir. Conclusion could be that the numbers for the prospective resources have to be reduced and that perhaps the probability of finding gas in the deeper formations has to be downgraded for some points (vice versa gas in the 200 Post Dande would derisk) This is my guts feeling at the moment only. On the other hand we could have seen more delays and I am speculating because perhaps a spare part of safty critical equipment is missing or whatever but in my opinion I would expect that the rig is drilling in the 200 formation already because I expect everything went according to plan and the 10 days are generous. And at the moment my optimism is a little bit down compared to some weeks ago because I liked the direct hydrocarbon indicators (DHI) in SM`s presentation so much ... but perhaps somebody got better information and thoughts than me

Expand

Personally I would never trust anyone named huang. It sounds too similar to wang.

Are you dicking us around wang? I spot 12 million + shares moving up and down daily and it looks like something a wang would do.

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(20min delay)
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