Chubbs, To be honest, I have no idea anymore. I think a lot of...

Chubbs,
To be honest, I have no idea anymore. I think a lot of things can and will happen to GBG to vary what we know from today.

We don't know the folowing -

* When are they now expected to reach 30mtpa with the current production delay
* Will there be further delays after initial production of hematite and before magnetite start or ramp up?
* Will Oakajee timing be conducive to a rapid ramp up to 30mtpa?
* Will the JV last in its current form?
* What will the costs and pricing of IO be by then?
* What effect could BHPB/RIO tieup have in the long run?
* Will the synergies help reduce costs to allow BHPB/RIO IO to be cheaper than Vale's and others, hence lowering prices to stifle competition?
* Or will BHPB/RIO control the market further and force increased prices- more probable!
* What effect will the planned indexation of IO pricing have in 6-8 years?
* Will GBG's drilling data prove to be accurate or will they find less IO and more waste than expected.

You could go on forever I suppose.

Realisticly, it's too far out and too much has changed for there to be any real confidence in predicting things at least 7 - 8 years away. Sorry mate.