gbi article in afr market wrap

Seems a fair piece on the GBI IPO.

As stated previously price and genotyping driving volume will win the war here with PapType!

http://marketwrap.afr.com/section.aspx?id=90&art=ATL://1208394242752

Hope it doesn't trade by appointment like AYX which he mentions in his article as the only other biotech IPO of 2008!

Infact AYX just doesn't trade....no one on the bid...ouch!!!

I have a few thoughts re his revenue projections and will post tomorrow after I finish doing my financial valuation model. His $2 to $2.5m in sales for 1st full year appears light on but his projected EBIT margin at circa 50% is about right considering gross margins of 80-85%.

CEO has told me that capacity with the manufacturing site that they have identified is 100,000 tests per month based on 1 shift per day so there 's room to increase this with additional shifts. 100,000 tests pcm would probably see an NPAT of about $4m pa back of the envelope.

I don't reckon that Genera is going to generate anywhere near the ball park revenues that PLT has projected into the market but with the institutions and as a new company to the public markets maybe its better to underpromise and over deliver!

cheers