gbi valuation - part 2, page-10

I was just having a look at the “Genera Biosystems Acquisition Comparables” at first glance it looks like comparing the corner shop to Safeway but I suppose you have to use the data you have.

The only other concern I would have with the figures is, for the sales projection for screening.

I think the growth in the primary screening market will be much slower than predicted in the four sales markets identified, assuming “Asia Pacific” primarily means Japan, Korea, Taiwan, the developed nations in the region.

In my last post I left a reference to the latest results from a British study which concludes doing primary screening using both cytology and HPV testing is not cost effective. Either Cytology or HPV testing should be used.

My point is that in developed countries very good access to cytology testing already exists and is highly effective. It’s unlikely in the short term (1-5years) that cytology testing will be supplanted by HPV testing. It would be an extremely brave health official to sanction a change from cytology based primary screening to HPV testing for cervical cancer/HPV at this stage.
I think the authorities in the US currently do not recommend HPV genotyping for primary screening, someone else may have some more info on that?

In countries which do not have any, limited screening for cervical cancer, HPV testing would be the obvious choice, based on cost and availability of skilled medical personal.
Developed countries will take a wait and see approach to HPV screening, and wait for results from other nations which adopt HPV testing before changing too or widely expanding HPV testing as a primary screen for cervical cancer.

Ultimately HPV testing will be used as a primary screen based on speed and cost effectiveness but I don’t see that a full genotyping HPV test will be the best way to go.
GBI should look at developing a single bead test for use as a primary screen which would just pick up high risk HPV strains without genotyping.

I think ASCUS/ triage will be the best and main use for the GBI assay and consequently would predict a more conservative growth in GBI sales in the coming years.