gbm's management and 5:4 issue

  1. 177 Posts.
    I started a new thread as we are really on a discussion about just one aspect of this company and the 5:4 rights ---- quality of management.

    I've thought about this very hard, and I think there is not much doubt that the SP should go to 10 cents. The only doubt is the time it may take.

    If I had some financial fat, and so could wait, I'd take up this offer in a flash. I do have serious doubt about taking up the offer because I don't have the fat to wait 12 months.

    I'd have no doubt under any circumstance if I saw a CEO who had some track record as CEO of a growth company, and was demonstrably an effective communicator. Production based primary industry experience would be a bonus, but it would be too much to expect to get gold industry experience.

    My gut feel is that without such a CEO, pressure to take "profit" at anything above the 2.5 cent issue price has to make the SP vulnerable for some time.

    J Cahill should be able to focus on geology and exploration - proving up the 1.1 million oz of "exploration target" could be expected to add many tens of millions to the market cap. The formula as follows:

    1.1 million oz x (POG - cost of production) * discount.
    1.1 million x ($A 1300 - $A800) * 20%
    = 154 million (discount as used by Goldnerds, and based on average Exploration Goldie valuations).

    plus the value of the 170k oz in JORC, and the value of plant, mine and other tenements.

    So the upside is huge.

    BUT they are only going to have $ 1.3 million left from this issue after they repay debt.

    Without a proven CEO, the chances of new stuff-ups, or a repeat of past ones, and a consequent burn of the $ 1.3 million must be a risk consideration.

    You'd think the decision to recruit such a person is a no-brainer. I am sending a strongly worded letter to this effect to the board.
 
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