A little while ago I tried to put put together an SP estimate...

A little while ago I tried to put put together an SP estimate based on some level of success following SP3. For those that haven't read it I came up with ~20cps based on flow rates of 5mmcfd and news-driven expectation of 10mmcfd from the reworking of PB1&2. I also tried to put a value on the assets in the ground, which looked about right (to me), but contained more assumptions than I'd like in such an assessment.

So I thought I'd have another crack at a valuation, this time viewing things from the point of field development rather than a 'sale of asset' perspective. This is what I came up with:

Field Development:
Reserve (P50) 85.6 BCF
Recovery p/well 4 BCF
Wells 21
Cost/Well $5,500,000 USD
Gas Price $5.00 USD per MMbtu
Total Gas Value $428,000,000 USD
Drill Costs $115,500,000 USD
Nett Gain $312,500,000 USD
Gain per Well $14,880,952 USD
Shares on Issue 471,386,404
Value to SP 0.66 USD
AUD 0.93 USD
Value to SP 0.713 AUD

Notes:
1. Recovery rates per well are based on AZZ's experience.
2. Cost per well is as per GDN's January announcement
3. Gas price is based on likely near-term price. If you don't like it, use the current spot price of 4.02USD.
4. If you're more optomistic, go with a gas price of the recent-year average of around $6.50. I'll save you doing the maths - it comes to 100 cent per share (AUD).
5. RPS Estimates will (presuambly) go up some time post PB3.
6. This estimate assumes commercial flows from PB3.

Frankly, I am staggered by these numbers. I have seen numbers like these mentioned here and elsewhere, but I have always taken them with a fair degree of scepticism. Plus GDN history has shown that my conservatism is somewhat warranted.

Anyway, I'll be rather ecstatic if we can get this puppy to 30cps this time around. Any more than that is cream.

Comments and corrections welcome.

Cheers,

-Disco