GDXJ vs ABU

Looking at the recent performance of the junior gold stock index (GDXJ) versus ABU, you can see in the chart below that ABU has plenty of catching up to do IMO. i.e. @50% performance gap on the YTD chart is massive.

Yesterday I cited my reasons for jumping back in at 1.6c. Note that 1.6c was also the bottom for 2010. Today we closed up a notch at 1.7c (or 1.8c if you include CXA trades) on reasonable volume and the risk vs reward short term looks very good to me. I've noticed that the XGD (local gold stock index) has a tendency to lag the American PM indexes by a few days, so next week am looking for some nice gains in the local gold stock sector and hopefully that includes ABU.  

Strange as it may seem, the GDXJ/GDX/HUI/XAU indexes look like they're leading the Price Of Gold (POG) higher ATM. Their performances this week have been nothing short of stellar and very costly if you were short those indexes. The 'PM index' bears must be in absolute shock right now. Who would have thought the GDXJ would cut through the 50dma and 200dma resistance like a hot knife through butter? Look at the multi week/month trend line breaks. No question that it has been a decisive move out of short term bear territory, backed up by record volumes. What was resistance should now act as support.

The question however is can POG follow the PM stock indexes and break above the immediate resistance area ($1277-$1300ish)? Or will the GDXJ etc. give up all of its recent gains if POG heads south again? Personally I can't see that happening in the short term, if at all. The move looks too decisive to me however a correction of @10% to the red support line seems quite likely as it is starting to look overbought.  ABU on the other hand is way oversold IMO and looks ready to break its immediate declining resistance line as shown IMO.  Next week should provide further clues as to whether the bottom is in or not for ABU, but looking at the recent action I'd say there's a very reasonable chance that we're already there. Good luck whatever your position.
  

Note: my opinion and analysis should not be relied upon nor considered as advice of any kind. Please DYOR.