gen election malaysia s/price guess on lynas

We had a competition to see where the share price would be at easter time

Unfortunately I was unable to participate

However my prediction of where Lynas share price will be on Monday morning day after the Malaysian election is based on the following thoughts

Week ending 19/4/2013 - 62 cents

CONFERENCE CALL - What can be expected from this live event

1) Phase Two of the Lynas plant in Malaysia 100 percent completed

This week will be interesting. There are 200 million shorts out there. Some should start to be covered during this period.

This week investors who have considered backing Lynas, I believe will jump in. At first only in small volumes. Inclusive of shorters who wish to go long and first time investor and those wishing to top up their holding could bring about an average of 15 million shares per day. This would not surprise me


Week ending 26/4/2013 - 70 cents

Getting closer and closer to the election. First time investors and those wishing to top up will start to accelerate purchasing on shares in Lynas

A double whammy effect will cause the short sellers to panic and an avalanche of buying will occur from this sector

An average of 20 million shares per day would not surprise me


Week ending 3/5/2013 - 75 cents


Well this is it. If you are not in now - the horse has bolted

Every man/woman and his dog/cat will want some of the action

The shorters will need to accelerate more coverings

Thirty million share per day on average would not surprise me


Monday 6/5/2013 - 90 cents

D day has come and gone


BARE IN MIND THE BELOW SCENARIO

due diligence on the samples being analysed by users completed and orders put in

if this is announced at conference call or anytime before election my guess is $1

after election and opposition get into power $1.50

after election and current government retains power $1.50


So my prediction is 90 cents on Monday irrespective of government with samples being still analysed by users

And $1.50 on Monday irrespective of government with due diligence completed by users and orders put in



The above is only my opinion and should not be construed as investment advice