To answer your question @Wombat2 with rare earths and when the market will generally wake up. we're still a way off I think. A lot of investors have heard of rare earths. But unless they're invested they generally don't understand the basket, the various elements, the different types of deposits, the demand etc.
For those that don't understand, they rely on the best current information. It's why a early producer like LYC is the MC it is. Rare earth + in production (buy). I suspect others have become increasingly cautious of the sector as many outdated FS exist but have obscene capex and/or are not profitable at spot price. You only need to look at posters understanding on stocks which are announcing the acquisition of tenements or projects and the euphoria on them.
I was reading just today about how someone got 'seriously excited' and done 'a lot of research into the Cerium (Ce) grades that were found'. It received 15-20likes.
I didn't bother to make the forum aware that Ce is basically worthless. IXR will have around 500T of Ce and 500T of La. For a grand total revenue of 1.4M per annum. Whereas 22T of Tb is worth 36M per annum. Most developers supply products "ex-cerium" and you'll see ixr quoting something similar. It's so worthless its almost considered deleterious.
To answer question 1) I have high aspirations for the project and company but I think ones excitement is dependant on timeframe and expected yield on investment. For those with a 3Y+ mindset we're thinking production by Y7 we're thinking 246M USD profit selling a product only a handful (3/4) outside china can do. Generational strategic asset (not without it's risks). For those wanting to chase the next high maybe not so exciting. You'll know when we bought it IXR was some boring 15M mc junk in Africa. Longer term holders might have other-wised passed. Admittedly, It ground away for months. and then rose over 1000% in a third that timeframe.
That's kind of the trouble with 5-Disallowed returns. Generally, unless you've sat in the trenches for 6months plus and not done the research you either sell out early, or you watch from the outside going 'it's risen 20% i've missed the boat'. Not realising the fundamental value supporting or not supporting said boat.
2) IXR doing refining and separation.
I am 95-99% confident that IXR will own/run a separation/refinery facility.
There’s just been far too much snippets and comments for it to not go that direction IMHO.
-The appointment of Jill and the military/government ties.
-IXR announcing a study for a refinery. Tim even suggesting “refineries” in a presentation.
-Now that language is turning to there being strategic value in IXR being able supply products direct to USA/EU. I don’t think they would use that language if they didn’t intend to go downstream themselves.
-I also recall language of Tim emphasising “the product”. And “maximising the value of the product”. How do you maximise value? You go downstream.
-Talks about the MOU with Chinalco allowing IXR to ‘de-risk’ the feasibility. Aka leverage their expertise now in the BFS of Makuutu and the SS of the refinery/sep facility.
-Talks about “as it currently stands there is no refinery capacity outside china”. So for IXR if they proceeded with a refinery it’s likely construction is later than the Makuutu mine and thus china is naturally the only spot the product can go. Makes sense to not hold the project up 2 years and wait for the BFS for a refinery to arrive.
I think the real question is about will they run it solely or will it be JV. i.e. part of the locations being investigated is also leveraging resources both in term of materials and expertise. My gut tells me that we might see another MOU but relating to the refinery. I hoping it’s a player USA/EU based and logically would affirm the “strategic” location.
The expertise/experience in running these types of plants is very limited globally and frankly, whilst quite a few players are running that angle I just think there’s inherent risk when you’ve not done it. Kind of like Lithum miners figuring out they’re more chemical than mining.Downstream aspirations delayed or with issues because turns out this isn’t as easy as it looked on paper.
I think H1 looks pretty big for IXR. I think we’ll have something announced regarding a JV or an MOU relating to separation and I think it will be USA/EU based location. The SS for that lands somewhere around the end of H1. They said location would be part of the study. Meaning they probably have delineated a location in advance and if so have probably got parties ready and waiting for either some offtake or to JV in the plant.
The BFS and mining licence is then in the very next quarter. I estimate somewhere in the 750M-900M mark for post-tax NPV.
So I’ll be surprised if we’re not a significantly higher price if we’ve got a 90M capex start up project and a NPV north of 750M, with JV/MOU for separation facilities based in the EU/USA selling a product no one else can.
My motto; buy now what everyone else will want to buy in 12-18months. IXR will be popular this time next year. If it works out and people have the stomach to ride the boring part now you’re there to capitalise on the quick runs when the herd catches up. I myself had stated that there would be some big lull in the S/P as we moved from explorer to developer and I think many had a similar idea of revisiting IXR closer to it’s BFS. But IXR’s has no casually moved from a recent June low of 2c to just under 4c. A sneaky 90% ROI – As we draw closer to those impending major news events I suspect that’s where the volatility of pricing increase will start to really come through.
For the really long termed viewer 5-7years is where Makuutu is at full noise and produce double our market in profits should the argus pricing be remotely accurate. If you research the depletion of IAC deposits in China you’ll understand that the HREO supply is a very real risk. That’s what makes IXR unique globally (well 1 of a handful knocking about).
If other IAC’s are to be discovered, who is going to be the sector leader?
The one with the largest and most economic deposit?
Or
the non-ionic or barely ionic low tonnages deposits with worse economics.
Think of IXR to IAC projects as what LYC is to hard-rocks.
Now picture LYC 5-7 years ago in MC and what it is now.
That is the potential for IXR in the HREO space.
The benchmark IAC and the one with first mover advantage.
The S/P is not far from what I envisioned a few years ago. Didn't quite expect it to go as high as it did, nor retrace as low. But that's how it goes. I've got a similar vision for IXR as a sector leader for HREO supply in the next 3-5.
There's barely anyone tangibly investigating HREO sep plants. Lynas has announced aspirations but don't have much to feed it with.
Their resource is 5% HREO content and similar constituent pre refining. compared to IXR's 44% HREO content feeding in at 92% concentration levels and no radionuclides no cracking etc. That's why china has 95% HREO facilities, because they've got the products to feed it from the IAC deposits. LYC best chance is to JV with IXR in the HREO facility, only way they can ensure they've got viable HREO feed.
Imagine that, and maybe a military/government contractor as the offtake partner. Same ones that Jill has dealt with over her career.
SF2TH
IXR Price at posting:
4.3¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)