this was in the Aust today - it is just an extract.
it is from * article.
I had not contemplated rare earth demand from the manufacture of robots.
How the dawn of the robot age could send rare earth demand ballistic- Rare earths prices have been subdued by oversupply and Chinese market dominance
- But challengers are emerging in the West
- And demand continues to grow, with analysts suggesting the next disruptive tech, humanoid robots, could double it by the 2030s
Oversupplied and dominated by opaque Chinese market forces, rare earths such as neodymium, praseodymium, terbium and dysprosium have been subject to more than three years of turgid prices, which has subdued earnings for miners and kept prospective projects in the ground.
But with supply constrained and China responding to US tariffs with export controls on heavy rare earths, the strategic backdrop for Western explorers and developers is getting brighter.
While a weak Chinese economy has played its role in restraining rare earths demand growth in recent years, enabling China to suppress prices with high mining quotas and imports from neighbouring Myanmar, the long-term outlook is better than it appears in the short term.
And a key inflection point could be emerging in 2025.
Previous trends like Chinese industrialisation, electric vehicles and renewable energy growth may have driven the previous surges in rare earths demand.
But a new technological development is taking shape that promises yet another uptick.
Citic Securities has declared 2025 could be the first year of the mass production of humanoid robots. A step towards the future envisaged by Isaac Asimov in The Bicentennial Man or the creation of Bender B. Rodriguez, sure.
But also a major potential driver of permanent magnet demand – according to Tianfeng Securities there's around 2-4kg of NdFeB magnets in each humanoid robot.
At a long-term target of 100m units annually, that's an entire rare earths market worth of additional demand.
Breaking outWestern analysts have picked up on the trend as well – with Elon Musk's Tesla (now short of magnet supplies thanks to China's ban) among the companies attempting to develop the nascent industry.
It could be an important growth sector as EV growth begins to slow down with increased market penetration and policy uncertainty.
Canaccord Genuity's Reg Spencer says a number of groups in China and the West are now on the verge of commercialisation.
"We think they will be first deployed in industrial/manufacturing applications, but as costs/tech continue to improve, forecast broader adoption (inc. consumer/home use) by the 2030s. In our view, the advent of humanoid robotics could be a major demand driver for NdFeB magnets, with improving dexterity/higher DOF leading to increasing magnet intensity per robot," he said in a note last month.
Canaccord thinks magnet demand will grow by 84% to 2035, but in an upside case for the uptake of humanoid robotics, that could increase to 147%.
"This clearly has positive implications for key magnet rare earth demand (CGe 90% demand growth by 2035 under our base case)," Spencer said.
Canaccord sees rare earth prices remaining subdued in the short term. Chinese NdPr prices, included VAT, are sitting at a touch under US$56/kg today.
But long-term prices should rise, with Canaccord setting a long term price of US$105/kg.
Goldman Sachs analysts say magnet demand is growing around 15%, with the NdPr market rising 7000-8000tpa. With that in mind, growth plans set out by leading Australian producer
Lynas (ASX:LYC) and developer
Iluka Resources (ASX:ILU) equate to only just over one year of market expansion.
Their long-term price sits at US$75/kg, but by 2029, they think deficits could push NdPr oxide to US$85/kg.
(20min delay)