China's dominance leaves US vulnerable, as critical minerals become political
By chief business correspondent Ian Verrender
Australia is a leading lithium producer but China's dominance in refining allows it to control trade. (ABC News: Rachel Pupazzoni)
Way back in 1992, on a visit to Inner Mongolia, China's then-leader Deng Xiaoping uttered what has since proven to be a visionary declaration.
"The Middle East has its oil, China has rare earths," he famously quipped.
For a largely agrarian nation, which at that stage was still grappling with the aftermath and horrors of the Cultural Revolution, it was a bold step towards achieving his 1986 ambition of transforming China into a high-tech superpower.
Deng envisioned a China with a dominance in rare earths that would transcend the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries' (OPEC) power over oil.
Deng Xiaoping compared the potential of rare earths to OPEC's dominance of the oil market. (Reuters: Reinhard Krause, File)
It was an idea that went way beyond the simple extraction of minerals.
It also incorporated the refining of rare earths, research into their use and, in more recent years, their deployment in highly specialised applications.
As a result, China now dominates the entire rare earths ecosystem, right down to the production of the super-hard magnets required for everything from weapons systems, to the robotics essential for delivering the future of manufacturing.
Australia faces challenges exporting critical minerals
Photo shows Crushed spodumene ore at the Talison Lithium mine in Greenbushes
The phrase "critical minerals" reflects the demand for them around the world, but China's market dominance means there are traps for new players such as Australia.
Around 90 per cent of all rare earths are refined in China. But when it comes to heavy rare earths — which now are required for ultra-high technology uses — it has a complete monopoly.
Companies or countries that produce rare earths ship their raw material to China for processing, leaving Beijing with almost complete control over marketing and pricing.
To maintain that position, Beijing has never been afraid of using its market power. It has alternatively flooded markets with material to make it uneconomic for others to establish rival industries, or denied access to refined product to others as punishment.
After US President Donald Trump launched his tariff war on China, with imposts rising to 145 per cent, Beijing slapped a ban on the export of heavy rare earths to the US, the very elements that are vital not only to America's military defence systems but to its continued lead in high-tech industries.
Why is Trump suddenly obsessed with rare earths?
Such overwhelming supply domination, and the pricing power that comes with it, has raised questions over whether governments should continue to allow market forces to determine the supply of materials vital for national security and development in an increasingly divided world.
While they're all usually lumped in together, there's a big difference between critical minerals and rare earths.
What purpose do critical minerals serve?
Photo shows A person holds a handfull of ground nickel
Australia is joining the European Union and the United States in establishing strategic reserves of critical minerals, but what do they actually do, and why are they so important?
While almost any mineral element can be regarded as a "critical mineral", the term is usually reserved for elements crucial for battery development or renewable energy sources.
To that end, even copper — one of the most commonly used industrial metals — is occasionally regarded as critical, as it plays a vital role in electricity generation and transmission.
However, the term is largely restricted to minerals like lithium, nickel and cobalt, which are key components in battery manufacture.
In the last few years, China has taken dominant roles in nickel, cobalt and lithium, particularly in refining.
Once a major global nickel producer, Australia in the past two years has shut down all its mines, following a price crash that rendered them uncompetitive.
BHP has closed its Nickel West mines until 2027, blaming global oversupply. (ABC Goldfields: Jarrod Lucas)
In recent years Indonesia, which has suddenly become the biggest producer on the planet, has taken the dominant role — overwhelmingly, however, that has been achieved with Chinese investment.
Lithium prices too have crashed. A vital ingredient in batteries, Australia is one of the world's leading producers and, until 18 months ago, appeared on the cusp of a new resources boom.
Why critical minerals prices are crashing
Photo shows a mine site with a big truck and white rock
The sudden evaporation of hype and hot air in the energy transition industry may leave many who plunged into critical minerals in a critical condition, writes business editor Ian Verrender.
Few major players are now making a profit.
While Australia and Chile hold far more lithium resources, China has a dominant position on refining and, like nickel, has moved to shore up supplies in other countries.
When it comes to refining, China churns out 68 per cent of the world's nickel, 40 per cent of copper, 59 per cent of lithium, and 73 per cent of cobalt.
That's allowed it to gain a stranglehold over battery production and, increasingly, electric vehicles.
Where America has control of the global financial system, China has aimed for domination and control of metal production and high-tech applications.
Strategic values or market values?
Rare earths aren't all that rare. In fact, they occur right across the globe.
However, for the most part, the 17 elements that make up the rare earths spectrum don't occur in high enough concentrations to make their extraction commercially viable.
Lighter rare earths were traditionally used for fluorescent lights and in televisions, where Japan was a major force and one of the largest buyers of the refined products.
In 2010, however, following a confrontation with a fishing vessel in disputed waters just south of Japan, China banned exports to Japan.
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Heavy rare earths such as neodymium, dysprosium and terbium are vital for the production of magnets essential for radar, targeting and electronic systems.
These materials are exclusively supplied by China but are used extensively in the US Air Force's fleet of F35 supersonic strike fighters.
Each jet requires around 420 kilograms of these materials.
Rare earths are also vital in semiconductor chips where they enhance performance.
Silicon chips are now fundamental to modern life, incorporated into every facet of electronics and driving up share prices on Wall Street.
America has no rare earths mines, after its sole mine filed for bankruptcy 15 years ago when China flooded the market with supply and sent prices tumbling.
Several Australian companies could help break China's stranglehold.
One is Lynas, which has a rare-earths-rich mine in Western Australia, a processing plant in Malaysia and another under construction in the US.
The other is Iluka Resources which, for 30 years, stockpiled a mountain of waste material from its sand-mining operations that contained high concentrations of heavy rare earths.
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