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22/01/22
15:07
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Originally posted by setfire2thehive:
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ARR is a hard rock project with the worst grades I've seen published. it would not be viable if it was an IAC deposit. Test work proves that with magnetic separation and flotation they can produce up to 1700ppm or 0.17% consider IXR finished product is 920,000ppm or 92% It's arguably (in my view) the worst rare earth investment on the asx, and unless there's a substantive amount of info missing (which I doubt) it's completely unviable. IMHO. AR3 is like IXR. except is has much less tonnage, it has thinner intercepts, it's strip ratio is higher and most importantly only a small portion of the REO in clay is ionic. In short you end up with a project with some of the right ingredients but not at the levels that make it economically viable. IMHO I'd wait for a study to confirm that but you can run the numbers and it's the reason they're concentrating on drilling because the tonnage can't support along life mine, and the short mine they have won't be economically robust. need to find much thicker intercepts and it needs to have a large adsorbed amount of REO with leaches with salts. REE was a good risk verse reward play as a hard rock project benchmarked to peers. in saying that and I've stated many times, there aren't many sub 2-3% hard rock projects which have proven substantive economically robust projects. A few have released studies with slim to implicit details of the economics. others had used incorrect pricing mechanism to support economics (aka assuming prices for product which weren't real) others have opted for no studies at all. only need to look at lynas at 7-9% TREO and the volume and capital sunk to achieve real profits at the scale which others are suggesting is achievable on paper with 1/6th the grade. admittedly a few have baskets slightly better but not 5/6 times better. Irrespectively it's not the worst and I would have considered a trade but not after a 40% day but it was a low MC compared to its LREO peers. LREO we refer to playa target nd/pr as the source of all income which is a competitive market. IXR basket rich in HREO of which 90%+ is supplied from IAC projects. very few competitors in the space. Have posted an opinion on just about every REO stock at some point over the last 3 years or so. Recommend a advanced search on HC using a keyword search with the ticker code will find post on most threads remaining as impartial as possible. For its MC IXR provides the best return in terms of projected NPV. couple that with some of the lowest capex, simple met work, massive resource upgrades potential, selling products no one else can, with tangible current credible downstream strategy. I could be labelled as biased and maybe I am, but if there was other projects in REO I felt as confident about I would have invested. given I've had the opinion since 0.4c there's not many that have outperformed in that timeframe and all the blow-ins that questioned the due diligence back then as we retraced 60% are long gone today so don't lose too much sleep in being labelled as having a myopic view. plenty of stocks on the asx to make money on, and doesn't need to be a race against other stocks or other people about who is making more money with less risk in shorter time frames. only compare my investments against myself. Try to make better choices and gains that I did in the months or years before. You can grab 30 REO stocks and everyone of them (probably) outperformed another in a given timeframe. So I don't really like comparing things much on performance because is quite subjective to the strategy. I just tend to stick with what I think are the most economically robust projects (relative to MC) in specific sectors knowing full well it could be the worst performer s/p wise in any period of time. it's why 3 of my current holds are 500-2000% ROI and 5 are relatively flat or 50-100%. In short, IXR is the stock I think in 2024/2025 people will look back on and think that was a bargain at 1c or 5c or 10c. It could easily be the stock you wish you sold at 7c if it pulls back the 5c in 2-3wks. I've got more confidence about the outcomes in 2-3 years time than I do about the next 2-3wks and it's why I've been holding and buying the dips. Next major free-carry window (I'm earmarked for) will be end of this year post BFS and separation SS and mining licence, offtake, project % acquisition and more mine to magnet news. That personally where I'll probably take profit. other circumstance will be if the REO pricing takes a dump. not sure if any of that helps. SF2TH
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do you have any thoughts to offer on Hastings Tech Metals? Seems like a low capex operation with good basket values that has decent prosepcts of getting finance, although the low NPV (500mil) makes me nervous, especially considering its current trading at about 500mil MC and its only an approx 16 MT resource...