Do agree on the first part regarding the scandium and posted something similar 18 months ago. So agree not quite sure the demand will be there to underpin those solidly in the economics - I do also suspect that it can/will produce as a by-product and as a result can expect the price of Sc to decrease a fair bit in the future in that supply/demand equation.
"As total tonnes in 315mT resource for Sc is 9450T only 24% is recovered = 2268T. i.e. current resource can support 20Y of 110T p/a throughput. 110T p/a scandium = 165M USD revenue p/a. Then assume 90% concentration and 75% payability on it like we did in the table = 110m USD p/a.
However, putting my conservative cap back on CLQ capped Sc sales to around 10T p/a (worth validating if this was contained tonnes or a concentrate of 10T scandium oxide at say 30% concentrate level etc etc = 15M USD. Worth people looking into Scandium demand to figure out what sort of global demand is there currently and for the future. Current estimates are around 20-40tpa from what i've read as current. Ultimately supply and demand will set price for Sc moving forward. https://www.scandiummining.com/ good start there.
Essentially don't bank on it to double the revenue as unless there is that kind of annual demand and prices remained at that level. IMHO i believe IXR could end up as a leading global supplier and it will be able to produce high grade concentrates as a by-product therefore think it will be a more desireable product than what others produce as by-product.
The projects based solely on scandium probably a belly up industry IMV as decreasing Sc prices with extra demand will crush bottom lines and is why slim to nil production from Sc as primary income source.
So it was the front end research i done as to why i have excluded the value add in most of my tables as still a few unknowns in that space and moving forward. Have always just based it on the Lathanides and always considered anything from Sc as a bonus as ultimately still a very immature market. SS may reveal some insights as to direction there but a space worth watching IMO"
Some errors in the second comment about head grade dropping below 600ppm if extra resources were added.
the MLA on RL1693 has ~260mT @ 740ppm. So if they had of been approved to incorporate known resources would have been an opportunity to optimise it based on the central zone where the grades are higher. They may not have opted to input the full JORC given the lower grades in the outer area. Although noting the lower grades being mined in the latter stages of the project somewhat offset by expected price increase. Anways, this would have seen a drop from 810ppm to 740ppm. Theoretically this could have allowed a faster ramp up and inputting revenues earlier in the first years of the project.
I expect the aforementioned resources will underpin a mineral reserves classification and then ultimately will form the basis to what is inputting into the FS.
My personal view is less reliance on the Sc credit as i'm not all that confident in the supply/demand equation and/or those revenues being fully realised. The REO pricing will need to meet demand as without the credit at current spot price only just turning a profit. Something i eluded to back in Post #:54031502
"For IXR it's investigating Scandium as a separate stream and hence why it showed the AISC with and without it. Essentially this would be selling a Sc concentrate and considering it as a credit to the operational costs.
Reason for sticking with IXR as it's the only one profitable at current prices (Sc credit considered) opex is $23kg and we have around $13 usd/kg margin. Without it IXR is at parity - breaking even on current prices."
They like most others are now figuring that the downstream component is a fairly critical aspect to viability as hole as a decent part of the margin is lost at the discount to the converter and also the profit margin they scalp there themselves.
Hopefully some operating cost improvements are made in the FS such that the project is less behoved to the Sc credit and/or REO pricing rising steeply. Despite that being a fairly consistent outlook for most REO developers.
(20min delay)