Using a 20M USD ebitda (which isn't exactly accurate) but then...

Using a 20M USD ebitda (which isn't exactly accurate) but then quoting a 200M AUD capex?
Also don't think it will be financed under full debt. Likely debt equity arrangement.

@adzconan who is providing a more constructive and balanced discussion.

Okay so a bit of work to do here.
5mtpa initial feed production.
Totally omit Sc credit. (noting i believe 10-20tpa to be perfectly likely/reasonable but i'll omit for the exercise)
Assume a 810ppm input (this is LoM) but production rates show over 2000T under 5mtpa production presumably a higher input mine grade in early years. (Can check SS for these REO t production rates)
similar recoveries
92% MREC produced
70% payability
no increase of REO pricing.

So below is the average revenue payable over SS input resource. Noting that my belief of mined grade is higher in initial years and decreases in later years. Hence why the production profile under 5mtpa i land at 1600T. whereas SS has 2000-2200. This make sense, as as 12.5mtpa my calc generates 4000tpa whereas study shows 3800ish showing a decrease in head grade in latter stages (so this is by no means perfect)


Now assumed a similar ramp up profile so the 70M and 47M capex in Y4 and Y6 and Y9 can be flicked wherever. but shows around 60M USD post tax profit across first 4 years and the --41M usd out lay for expansion which seems to indicate that the capex can be fully funded. Ir-respectively, i expect some shortfall or partial funding can be done via debt or capital raise.



If we we're to add say 10-20tpa production across LoM for Sc which i believe is entirely feasible given it will be produces as a by-product at no extra cost and so even in years where 40tpa or greater is produced the price will crater and likely only be equivalent to 15-20tpa or so.

Adding that in even at the assumed price of $800usd/kg (which was the 25tpa price assumption in study so i've used a lower price) over LoM added another 12M USD to the bottom line.
~55M EBITDA USD. That punches out around a 300M USD NPV 25Y LoM - FWIW

Then if one inputs back in the long term pricing of REO which remains fairly flat until after Y5 whereby it rises fairly significantly from ~60usd/t to 80/90usd/t and then 118usd/t.

Noting other developers appear to be using assumed revenues of NdPr above 150usd/kg and doing so from Y1 and putting 4% CAGR on that.

Any ways if one throw in a more conservative rise of the REO pricing is where one can arrive at closer to what i think will be closer to reality.

In summary, in my mind above and below indicates;
1) Rough economics at spot price with no Sc credit. (marginal, but profitable) - what bears are banking on.
2) Spot price with a small Sc Cr. (solidly profitable NPV would warrant current MC or higher IMO)
3) Forecast REO pricing with small Sc Cr. (generates MC in FCF annually) (shown below) - what bulls are banking on



Note: Nothing here considered for other revenue streams or downstream value and magnet recycling.
Also doesn't consider any improvements made since the SS in terms of some of the met-work, processing, mining methodology etc etc.

SF2TH