Thanks for the balanced feedback.you are right, transparently I...

Thanks for the balanced feedback.

you are right, transparently I had personally been using 10-20 in the past. In an emerging market these are typical as it's forecasting some level of growth in the company and/or pricing growth etc.

but I do agree generally not a sustainable metric at 30 and also when companies pay dividends the PE ratios tend to drop.

lithium for example across the board was at obscene PE ratio, some not even profitable. a year or so ago LYC was 30+ and additional wasn't making money at one stage.

If I recall 30 was what some bears had used and so I was consistent in that approach whilst also suggesting that may be high. I'm sure I could find the post to cite but not on the phone.

Also FWIW, I don't like to use PE as a metric for valuation unless close to production or in production. discounted free cash flow method IMO is more accurate in the development phase. the PE can be wildy inaccurate, GRR for example, an IO magnetite producer was PE of like 2 for years. was Printing money and massive divi at the time eventually moved to 5/6 etc due to s/p uplift. though they were just handing dividend and not growing the company. disclosure don't hold so not cross promoting)

on your last point re investment;
95%+ are in the commodity sector.
Aside from that I tend to move in and out of sectors or commodities I think have a window of price growth with a 6month-3y horizon.
I.e what commodity do I think will begin to rip in 1-3years and target those.

obviously EV and battery metals are the flavours on the market, but I'll invest in any commodity stock if I think the RvR is good. I also tend to try and balance it out with some gold/IO/Copper/HMS which are a little less 'sexy' but more long term and sustainable.

for full transparency I generally keep watchlist of all stocks sorted by commodity with some high level notes. So if IO starts to move - I can pull up the IO companies - look at key metric (if in production revenue, if in development (NPV), if in exploration grade and size of deposit) market cap, location. Almost like a heat map. it's not perfect but it highlight 3-4 which seem to stand out like outliers for value. do the deep dive and see what 1-2 stand out.

aside from REO, graphite and copper would be the other 2 commodities I like for next 1-3Y. infact I think my overall graphite exposure is probably collectively higher than REO.

cobalt is a bit fickle and haven't found anything economical solid. Lithium is hard to find anything with the upside I like and everything is underpinned by the sc6 and or hydroxide price staying frothy - just not what or where I like to target. uranium - seems to swing in roundabouts. don't touch oil/gas unless I'm pushed and/or it's short term.

Anything I am in short term (or trading on a chart setup) which for me is 4-12wk hold. yes that's a trade for me, then I don't post on the stock or comment and if I do I indicate my sell targets at the time.

90% of capital is in the 6month-3y holds. whilst 10% of if flicks into short term trades based on predominantly technical setups.

SF2TH