@mraligator Thanks for the tags. I'm more than happy for you to reference my posts/opinions and put it out there, no issue from me - but personally I don't have an interest in doing so.
I don't actually post for exposure to the stock if i'm honest, for the most part it's genuinely nutting things out publicly (which forces me to research enough to not look like a total idiot) and to have it publicly dissected so I can get a good grasp of what's happening and where things will land. It's generally an added bonus that people then cite it/like it etc which in turns gains naturally popularity.
My next large brain dump will be prior to SS to see how close i can land and i'll probably put something together post it's release and massage my original work to suit.
I see that "The Man" (me) is still getting crucified for a VML (not a holder) error which, in fairness was accurate to certain extent, but I did retract my comments and make marked notice of my error. To make up for it I subsequently corrected all the workings and again apologised for ill advised economics. Post #:
51310415 contains the details of the re-worked economics i put out similar to what i've done here to make up for my error - Actually worth reading as it's the ideal offtake arrangement IMV if IXR could land something similar i'd probably wind up posting directly to Elon Musk's twitter handle and making a reddit account.
I guess what I'm saying is, when things are new/fresh and I'm still working stuff I post quite a lot and probably would be seen as more of a exposure campaign. I've got more conservative targets and more conservative timeframes than most and my posting style has probably changed to reflect that - as such I'll leave the hyperbolic price targets and superlative language to others.
It's easy being loved when you're calling 5-10 bags next week. but I'd rather be right, than liked.
IMV 5-10bags from here - is production.
If you look at the current chart the daily turn is what cause a bit of a sell off as well as a break off trend.
I've marked up in pink just a random line where i think date wise we may see the turn of the tide. People perhaps selling off in lieu of the run-up towards SS release. If you look at the stochastics, the bottom (should the trend continue) would line up with that fairly well.
What price will it get to? dunno might not go down at all, stochastics doesn't always correlate with price movement just displays cycles. If i was guessing 4.4-4.5c still looks like it will get tested, it may and its less likely even get down to 4c if it does, lookout because thats the 61.8c fib retrace, the previous major high and the CR raise price. That will get absolutely eaten up before you can blink or held there to scare supply in but IMO basement price before SS release. (again people might panic but this is only 37% loss from the 6.5c high. Us longs have copped 70% before. Anyways i expect it will bounce obviously on the SS and lead up to the announcement. 5.5c or 6.5c would be my predictions depending on how low it went.
Interestingly those who know fib know if it breaks 6.5c its 1.68 extension. Any guess what price that is? The infamous 10.5c. So not ruling it out, market could very well trade this up to that value.
View attachment 3002312At that price IXR would have MC of 300M. Staying in line with my usually methodology you take the NPV and apply a % to it for how developed we are. With no rose coloured glasses i think 20-25% post SS is fair given rare earths strategic nature. I'll do the detailed make up regarding NPV and depending on if you do discounted FCF method or PE ratio's i think we're a 1bn-1.5bn stock (at 60% ownership). at 20% this could yield us to that 300M mark. So speaking transparently it could hit that value and IMO it would be at the upper end of fair value (for this point in time) - but i don't think it would stay at that value if it did.
So again transparently, i do plan to buy more shares (bought some at 5c) and i will buy more at 4-4.5c. (if i can). I personally will sell back the capital i am reinvesting (free-carry) if it was to hit 10c or even if it hit 6.5c and didn't break past through. The end result is more shares in IXR with my capital returned.
A lot of traders won't like me giving away the trade strategy and a lot of longs probably don't want me being conservative or indicating that I will free-carry the shares i'm buying now, but it's what I plan to do and a lot of holder would have you believe they're constantly buying but very few will indicate they're selling, certainly not ahead of time. Transparency means more to me than making money and the above is my intentions - obviously subject to prevailing change in the fundamental situation.
Let's hope the SS knocks it out the park and that SF2TH is a bloody goose and we're all surprised on the upside. Always happy to be wrong on the upside.
SF2TH
(20min delay)