Below are the data sources, inputs and calculation used to determine the intrinsic value for Ionic Rare Earths.
An important part of a discounted cash flow is the discount rate, below we explain how it has been calculated.
{caption}ASX:IXR Discounted Cash Flow Data Sources{/caption} 1 Data Point Source Value 2 Valuation Model 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity 3 Levered Free Cash Flow Up to 1 Analyst Estimates on Average (S&P Global) See below 4 Discount Rate (Cost of Equity) See below 7.6% 5 Perpetual Growth Rate 5-Year Average of AU Long-Term Govt Bond Rate 2.1%
{caption}Calculation of Discount Rate/ Cost of Equity for ASX:IXR{/caption} 1 Data Point Calculation/ Source Result 2 Risk-Free Rate 5-Year Average of AU Long-Term Govt Bond Rate 2.1% 3 Equity Risk Premium S&P Global 5.0% 4 Metals and Mining Unlevered Beta Simply Wall St/ S&P Global 1.15 5 Re-levered Beta = 0.33 + [(0.66 * Unlevered beta) * (1 + (1 - tax rate) (Debt/Market Equity))]= 0.33 + [(0.66 * 1.153) * (1 + (1 - 30.0%) (0.0085%))] 1.103 6 Levered Beta Levered Beta limited to 0.8 to 2.0(practical range for a stable firm) 1.103 7 Discount Rate/ Cost of Equity = Cost of Equity = Risk Free Rate + (Levered Beta * Equity Risk Premium)= 2.08% + (1.103 * 5.00%) 7.59%
Discounted Cash Flow Calculation for ASX:IXR using 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
The calculations below outline how an intrinsic value for Ionic Rare Earths is arrived at by discounting future cash flows to their present value using the 2 stage method. We use analyst's estimates of cash flows going forward 10 years for the 1st stage, the 2nd stage assumes the company grows at a stable rate into perpetuity.
{caption}ASX:IXR DCF 1st Stage: Next 10 years cash flow forecast{/caption} 1 Levered FCF (AUD, Millions) Source Present Value Discounted (@ 7.59%) 2 2024 -12.18 Analyst x1 -11.32 3 2025 -73.08 Analyst x1 -63.13 4 2026 -30.18 Analyst x2 -24.23 5 2027 43.61 Analyst x1 32.54 6 2028 43.18 Analyst x1 29.94 7 2029 43.17 Est @ -0.01% 27.83 8 2030 43.43 Est @ 0.61% 26.02 9 2031 43.89 Est @ 1.05% 24.44 10 2032 44.49 Est @ 1.36% 23.03 11 2033 45.19 Est @ 1.58% 21.74 12 Present value of next 10 years cash flows A$86.86
{caption}ASX:IXR DCF 2nd Stage: Terminal Value{/caption} 1 Calculation Result 2 Terminal Value FCF2033 × (1 + g) ÷ (Discount Rate – g)= A$45.192 x (1 + 2.08%) ÷ (7.59% - 2.08% ) A$836.85 3 Present Value of Terminal Value = Terminal Value ÷ (1 + r)10A$837 ÷ (1 + 7.59%)10 A$402.55
{caption}ASX:IXR Total Equity Value{/caption} 1 Calculation Result 2 Total Equity Value = Present value of next 10 years cash flows + Terminal Value= A$87 + A$403 A$489.41 3 Equity Value per Share(AUD) = Total value / Shares Outstanding= A$489 / 4,281 A$0.11
{caption}ASX:IXR Discount to Share Price{/caption} 1 Calculation Result 2 Value per share (AUD) From above. A$0.11 3 Current discount Discount to share price of A$0.020= (A$0.11 - A$0.020) / A$0.11 82.5%
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Mkt cap ! $48.69M |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
0.9¢ | 1.0¢ | 0.9¢ | $37.98K | 4.160M |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
9 | 1745509 | 0.9¢ |
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Price($) | Vol. | No. |
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1.0¢ | 10095547 | 17 |
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No. | Vol. | Price($) |
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8 | 1555509 | 0.009 |
47 | 16398476 | 0.008 |
34 | 14286214 | 0.007 |
29 | 15441103 | 0.006 |
33 | 10906633 | 0.005 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
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0.010 | 9595547 | 16 |
0.011 | 3221190 | 5 |
0.012 | 2619999 | 5 |
0.013 | 1177743 | 4 |
0.014 | 1850171 | 6 |
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