Hey SmallFish (and several others) – it's pretty clear you’re not too keen on my recent posts, brushing them off as “sniping” while instead focusing just on the upside of dry gas. But honestly, I’ve rarely heard anyone argue that having no liquids is a real advantage—except maybe when a project with no liquids is trying to drum up funding fast.
I also took some time to look through posts from you and other so-called "alpha" posters here. A few of you clearly know the space, which is why I find it a bit surprising (and worth pointing out) that there’s been a pretty consistent pattern around TBN posters with knowledge for a while now:
There's a lot of talk hyping up TBN’s flow rates, but no one mentions that this latest appraisal campaign delivered about half the results (per foot) compared to previous ones. (wonder what that would look like on one of those pretty normalised extrapolated charts).
The “record-breaking” drilling speeds in this last appraisal program are getting a lot of love, but we’re glossing over the fact that only 0.5 laterals were achieved out of 3 attempted (1/6 success rate). That’s a shocking outcome and prohibitive in its own right.
Yes, east coast gas prices are solid—but TBN’s production target will flood the NT market and will incur transport costs around $5/GJ, which is a massive chunk of the selling price. And sure, we can talk LNG dreams, but let's be real—TBN doesn’t even have a single well flowing at commercial rates or any (nil) certified reserves.
Some of you are more than happy to accept TBN's dream about big US-style cost reductions coming to the NT. That feels pretty unrealistic given the structural differences—smaller population, remoteness, tougher regulations, and so on. Australia just isn’t the same environment and anyone with knowledge of the industry would know that.
I could keep going, but I’ll leave it there for now. I just hope the folks who do know the industry here start sharing a more balanced and realistic view of TBN and the project. It’s important for investors reading these threads to get a full picture—not just the hype. And hey, don't get me wrong, I’m certain none of you are trying to pump the stock, right?
(20min delay)