Here's an attempt at a rolled up, simplified, "For" case if you're considering investing in EXR, or perhaps a bit of a reminder for current shareholders of what we have put our hard earned wonga into.
Of course I expect responses in the negative from the usual suspects- I think it's fair to say we've pretty much heard it all, (or maybe you haven't- because you're smart enough to put all the tools on ignore) and the recent sp performance hasn't pleased anyone (unless you're accumulating), the CR was probably the straw that broke the camels back for some- so be it.
Some absolutely & completely warranted criticism and observations though from considered posters. We've all been feeling pretty frustrated of late.
The point of this post is, I hope, an opportunity to look clinically and from an unbiased perspective (caveat- I'm obviously biased!!!
at global macro level and localised drivers and themes around natural gas demand and supply- and what this potentially means for EXR- and for shareholders.
1) Macro level drivers - Watch this (I've posted it on another thread so it's a repeat- BUT IMO a must watch.
https://www.energyconnects.com/videos/video-interviews/2023/september/gas-markets-need-to-remain-vigilant/Look at the major themes in this video
- Strong & continued, if not increased demand for gas (note Asian increased demand- and China of course + also consider our own domestic demand needs, particularly the Southern states with their massive upcoming supply shortfalls)
- Recent underinvestment in gas - in terms of bringing on supply & associated infrastructure
- Increased Security of energy supply priorities
- Energy transition- it's not linear. Gas as a transition pathway as part of the energy transition, and as a feedstock. (there's a great Joe quote in another video about an African government minister saying "before we de-carbonise- we need to carbonise".
* of course if you wanted to dive further into these areas - there is the EXR Research thread with some decent stuff, perhaps look closely again at EXR presentations, even the most recent OMA Good Oil presso with graphics depicting gas supply shortfall and demand needs domestically etc etc.2) What EXR has to offer (**)A) Gas in Mongolia- to supply domestic and Chinese needs (More on Chinese demand for gas here:
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B) Gas in Oz- to supply domestic and potential Asian demand (Japan, Korea- perhaps)- see this
69770804and this
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C) Green H20 - but let's overlook this for now- could be massive, but the project won't move fwd until we've secured potential offtakers.
We "just" need to extract said gas in both plays, at commercially favourable rates. This is, of course, not a simple, quick or cheap exercise.Conderations- We're cashed up to execute expediating both A & B through 2024 to a point of "pi%% or get off the pot",
- Sovereign risk- Mongolia of course, and who woulda thunk it domestically
- Global affairs, War, Famine, Plague, etc etc-
- EXR Management and strategy execution
- This may all go to pot
** EXR is pure latent potential- none of it yet realised. Everything takes longer than you expect. It is a binary play IMO- big risk, potential big returns.
Huge and numerous risks everywhere- DYOR, none of this is advice.
