I would like to discuss the statement made by Bas Vermeulen some months ago regarding the breakeven flow rate expected from Grandis well DD-2....With reference to the highlighted sentence below, I don't believe the breakeven flow rate should be related to the initial instantaneous rate achieved from the Lorelle sands. The stabilized rate from the Lorelle pre-stimulation was around 1.3 mmscf/d, and if the stimulation job has been successful in these deep high pressure sands, we might expect post-stim rates 2-3 times larger.
“BasVermeulen: 2.5MMSCF/dayis the breakeven point.We don't know the flow rate ofthe Lorelle zone at this stage
We also don't know how much theother zones will flow after will have completed their fracking program.
Whilst I understand what you aresaying - that 2.5mmscf/day is pocket money - we don't know what rate we willeventually flow from this well, and therefore we don't know how much money wewill make from this well. The market currently only knows that the Lorelle flows higher than 2.5MMSCFD and is therefore deemed commercial stand alone.”
@2020Mustang referred to the Next Investors' article of 19 April 2024....... "The company NEEDS tomeet the higher end of the base case, or better still the bull case, to attract institutional investors and/or JV partners."
So, in conclusion, in order to settle the debate, it would be a good idea to request clarification from Elixir Energy, please?
I would also be interested to hear opinion of other experienced petroleum engineers on HC regarding a realistic breakeven rate.
Economic analysis is the usual method of evaluation, but I am not sure of the well cost.
Regards,
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