To estimate the value of 2.6 trillion cubic feet equivalent (Tcfe) of 2C contingent resource natural gas in Australian dollars (AUD) using Wallumbilla Gas Supply Hub prices, we need to account for the hub’s pricing, energy content conversion, and the speculative nature of 2C resources. Below is a revised calculation incorporating the provided search results and addressing the request for Wallumbilla Hub prices as of 2025.
Step 1: Understand 2C Contingent Resources
2C contingent resources are the best estimate of potentially recoverable hydrocarbons from known accumulations but are not yet commercially viable due to technical, economic, or regulatory uncertainties. Their value is speculative and typically discounted (e.g., 10–50% of proven reserves) due to development risks and costs.
Step 2: Convert Tcfe to Energy Content
1 Tcfe of natural gas is approximately 1,055 petajoules (PJ), as 1 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) ≈ 1,055 PJ.
- 2.6 Tcfe ≈ 2.6 × 1,055 PJ = 2,743 PJ.
- Since Wallumbilla prices are quoted in AUD per gigajoule (GJ), convert PJ to GJ: 1 PJ = 1,000 GJ.
- 2,743 PJ = 2,743 × 1,000 GJ = 2,743,000 GJ.
Alternatively, in terms of million British Thermal Units (MMBtu):
- 1 Tcfe ≈ 1,000,000 MMBtu.
- 2.6 Tcfe = 2.6 × 1,000,000 MMBtu = 2,600,000 MMBtu.
- 1 GJ ≈ 0.9478 MMBtu, so 1 MMBtu ≈ 1.055 GJ.
Step 3: Determine Wallumbilla Hub Price (2025)
Wallumbilla Gas Supply Hub prices are quoted in AUD per GJ. The search results provide limited recent data for 2025, but we can use the following:
- Historical context: In March 2017, the volume-weighted average (VWA) price at South East Queensland (SEQ) on the Wallumbilla hub was AUD 8.30/GJ.
- 2023 data: A domestic price cap for 2023 was set at AUD 12/GJ, reflecting a “reasonable” price based on production costs.
- 2024 data: Producer contract prices for 2025 supply averaged AUD 13.58/GJ in the second half of 2024, down 10% from the first half. Retailer contract prices for 2025 were AUD 14.51/GJ.
- Future Gas Strategy (2024): Estimates domestic gas production and delivery costs to southern markets at AUD 9–13/GJ, compared to higher LNG import prices (AUD 17.81–21.58/GJ).
- Victorian market (2024): Average gas price in Victoria was AUD 11.34/GJ, providing a regional benchmark.
Given the lack of a specific 2025 Wallumbilla spot price, we’ll use AUD 13.58/GJ (producer contract price for 2025 supply) as the most recent and relevant estimate for Wallumbilla, as it aligns with east coast market trends and is supported by ACCC data. For sensitivity, we’ll also test AUD 12/GJ (2023 price cap) and AUD 14.51/GJ (retailer price).
Step 4: Calculate Value in AUD
Using AUD 13.58/GJ:
- 2,743,000 GJ × AUD 13.58/GJ = AUD 37,248,540,000 ≈ AUD 37.25 billion.
Using MMBtu for cross-check:
- Price per MMBtu: AUD 13.58/GJ ÷ 0.9478 MMBtu/GJ ≈ AUD 14.33/MMBtu.
- 2,600,000 MMBtu × AUD 14.33/MMBtu = AUD 37,258,000,000 ≈ AUD 37.26 billion.
The values align closely, confirming calculation consistency.
Step 5: Adjust for 2C Contingent Resource Uncertainty
The calculated value (AUD 37.25 billion) assumes full recovery and market-rate sales, which is not applicable for 2C resources due to:
- Development costs: Unknown costs for drilling, infrastructure, and transport.
- Market discounts: 2C resources are often valued at 10–50% of proven reserves due to risk.
- Commercial hurdles: Technical or regulatory barriers may delay or prevent extraction.
Assuming a conservative 20% valuation factor for 2C resources (a rough estimate due to lack of specific field data):
- AUD 37.25 billion × 0.2 = AUD 7.45 billion.
Step 6: Sensitivity Analysis
- Using AUD 12/GJ (2023 price cap):
- 2,743,000 GJ × AUD 12/GJ = AUD 32,916,000,000 ≈ AUD 32.92 billion.
- 20% for 2C: AUD 32.92 billion × 0.2 = AUD 6.58 billion.
- Using AUD 14.51/GJ (2025 retailer price):
- 2,743,000 GJ × AUD 14.51/GJ = AUD 39,800,930,000 ≈ AUD 39.80 billion.
- 20% for 2C: AUD 39.80 billion × 0.2 = AUD 7.96 billion.
Step 7: Consider Market Context
Wallumbilla prices are influenced by domestic supply and LNG export dynamics. The ACCC notes a potential 9 PJ shortfall in July–September 2025 if LNG producers export all uncontracted gas, which could push prices higher. However, producer prices have been declining (10% drop in 2024), suggesting softening market conditions. The Future Gas Strategy indicates domestic production costs (AUD 9–13/GJ) are lower than LNG import prices, supporting the use of AUD 13.58/GJ as a reasonable estimate.
Final Answer
The value of 2.6 Tcfe of 2C contingent resource natural gas, using a Wallumbilla Hub price of AUD 13.58/GJ (2025 producer contract price), is approximately AUD 7.45 billion, accounting for the speculative nature of 2C resources with a 20% valuation factor.
This value could range from AUD 6.58 billion (at AUD 12/GJ) to AUD 7.96 billion (at AUD 14.51/GJ), depending on market conditions.
For precise valuation, consult current Wallumbilla benchmark prices via AEMO’s GSH data dashboard (https://aemo.com.au) or ACCC’s LNG netback price series (https://www.accc.gov.au). 
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