Hi Goodheart,
I should point out that using the 65% grade price to calculate revenue this quarter will overshoot because:
MGX have said they won't hit 65% grade until 'mid year'.
Iron ore goes onto the ship with a moisture content. The buyer does not want to pay for water, so pays a calculated dry price. Deduct 3.5% to get from wet to dry and it won't be far out.
There are also possible debits for impurities, though I expect that with the higher grades coming in silica will now be 'within spec'
With iron ore, the shipper pays for the shipping costs, so that has to be deducted too. This is so even though the ownership of the iron ore passes from MGX to the buyer as the cargo loads onto the ship.
The price obtained for the cargo is only provisionally calculated as the ship departs. The final price paid per tonne is calculated when the cargo unloads at destination and an adjustment is made up or down. At the moment, iron ore prices are on a bit of a bust, so most cargos leaving recently will have a downwards adjustment. Some of the adjustments for recently departed ships will actually occur in the next quarter. These adjustments could be $millions per cargo.
Having a good stab at revenue does not help too much to assess the total profit picture at present because the operational costs are changing rapidly per tonne as strip ratio declines and stabilisation work on the wall ends. Also there is a new fleet of trucks due any day now, if not already, so that should assist efficiency.
Not being embedded within the company nor being analysts party to more information, we have no accurate knowledge of costs [AISC AIC] , so we don't know what to deduct from revenue per tonne until the Quarterly and Annual Reports are published - unless 'someone' decides to publish a Presentation.
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Hi Goodheart,I should point out that using the 65% grade price...
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