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AGY

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8.0¢ argosy minerals limited

Share price 6.26c in 2019???

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LingLingLenno

236 Posts.

74

11/12/18

21:07

Post #: 36825129

Originally posted by Jezzaaa ↑

Okay guys, here we go. Bit of a slow day today so here's some of Jez's Calculations I hope you will enjoy and find insightful.

Before i begin, here are a couple of notions i would like to put out there:

1. In the Long-Run AGY will not stop at 10,000-15,000 t.pa. Whoever our Offtake partner will be (most likely a Car Manufacturer), their demand for our lithium product will most likely rise 50-75% p.a in line with the rise in demand for Electronic Cars or other Battery Requiring products. (Think about how much they will want in 4-6 years). By building a close relationship with them by tailoring the product so precisely we stand a great chance to be on the top of their list to supply this lithium. As per the announcements Jerko has also been mentioning more than 1 customer, alternatively -- as soon as we have the money generated to go beyond 10,000-15,000 we will likely do so and expand our wings further to provide to all those demanding our BG product. My forecasted Lithium Output reflects the above.

2. Price Per Tonne of lithium – I have used an estimate of $15,000 USD per tonne. I believe our product should be at least this long term considering how much tailored processing we are doing for our customer that is saving them money.

3. Operating Costs – As per the PEA our operating costs per tonne of lithium is $4,700 USD per tonne. I have also added $1,000 to this amount in my calculations to to cover any other costs that may not have been covered. With economies of scale this cost will drop, but I would rather overstate costs for now.

4. Argentine Export Tax – Quote from recent Announcement “the Argentine government “will impose a new temporary tax of 3 Pesos per US Dollar of export value on goods shipped internationally … which is equivalent to approximately 7.9% based on current exchange rates. … it was noted the tax will only be in place through to the end of 2020”

5. Company Tax – As per recent announcement: Taxable income from mining operations is subject to corporate income tax at the rate of 30% from 1 January 2018, reducing to 25% from 1 January 2020.

Split Ownership of Project: We have 90% ownership of project. 10% of our project belongs to Puma Mining if im correct? (correct me if im wrong) I therefore assume 10% of the profit goes to them.

USD / AUD currently $1.39

8. Market Capital – I believe there are around 900 million shares currently on issue, I have calculated estimated Market capital around this basis.

9. Limitation of Resource - As per the JORC we have 240,000 Tonnes of Lithium. As seen by recent announcements we can spend $500,000 USD to buy neighbouring land that will get us another 20,000 Tonnes of lithium. We also have the option to drill deeper. Because $500,000 USD is not that much in the grand scheme of things i have not included Lithium resource as a limitation.

10. Disclaimer: I have not included the revenue from Byproducts, there are also many other particular things that may need to be considered in the calculation of financials that i have left out. Capital Payback for Stage 3 funding, potential dilution, and more. These calculations are rough estimates, ballpark figures and not to be taken as financial advise.The Output per annum is also speculation i have moderately supported by facts under the 1st paragraph. The share Prices are based off profit to equity ratios. Please remember that companies will be worth more in advance, particularly now as we are not in a profit producing stage

Column 1 Column 2 Column 3 Column 4 Column 5

1 Year

2 2019

3 2020

4 2021

5 2022

6 Output (t p.a)

7 500

8 3,000

9 10,000

10 15,000

11

12

13

14

15

16 X $15,000USD per tonne

17 $7,500,000

18 $45,000,000

19 $150,000,000

20 $225,000,000

21 (4.7k+1k) cost per tonne

22 ($2,850,000)

23 ($17,100,000)

24 (57,000,000)

25 ($85,500,000)

26 Cash Inflow

27 $4,650,000

28 $27,900,000

29 $93,000,000

30 $139,500,000

31 7.9% Export Tax

32 ($367,350)

33 ($2,204,100)

34 x

35 x

36 10% to Puma

37 ($428,265)

38 ($2,569,590)

39 ($9,300,000)

40 ($13,950,000)

41 Company Tax

42 ($1,156,316)

43 ($6,937,893)

44 ($20,925,000)

45 ($31,387,500)

46 Net Cash Inflow

47 $2,698,069

48 $16,188,417

49 $62,775,000

50 $94,162,500

51 Net Cash inflow (AUD x1.39)

52 $3,750.316

53 $22,501,899

54 $87,257,250

55 $130,885,875

56 P/E 10 MC

57 $37.5m

58 $225m

59 $872.5m

60 $1.31b

61 Share Price

62 4.17c

63 25c

64 97c

65 $1.46

66 P/E 15 MC

67 $56.25m

68 $337.5

69 $1.309B

70 $1.97b

71 Share Price

72 6.26c

73 37.5c

74 $1.46

75 $2.19

Column 1 Column 2 Column 3 Column 4 Column 5

1 Year

2 2023

3 2024

4 2025

5 2026

6 Output (t p.a)

7 15,000

8 20,000

9 30,000

10 40,000

11

12

13

14

15

16 X $15,000USD per tonne

17 $225,000,000

18 $300,000,000

19 $450,000,000

20 $600,000,000

21 (4.7k+1k) cost per tonne

22 ($85,500,000)

23 ($114,000,000)

24 ($171,000,000)

25 ($228,000,000)

26 Cash Inflow

27 $139,500,000

28 $186,000,000

29 $279,000,000

30 $372,000,000

31 7.9% Export Tax

32 x

33 x

34 x

35 x

36 10% to Puma

37 ($13,950,000)

38 ($18,600,000)

39 ($27,900,000)

40 ($37,200,000)

41 Company Tax

42 ($31,387,500)

43 ($41,850,000)

44 ($62,775,000)

45 ($83,700,000)

46 Net Cash Inflow

47 $94,162,500

48 $125,550,000

49 $188,325,000

50 $251,100,000

51 Net Cash inflow (AUD x1.39)

52 $130,885,875

53 $174,514,500

54 $261,771,750

55 $349,029,000

56 P/E 10 MC

57 $1.31b

58 $1.74b

59 $2,62b

60 $3.49b

61 Share Price

62 $1.46

63 $1.94

64 $2.91

65 $3.88

66 P/E 15 MC

67 $1.97b

68 $2.61b

69 $3.93b

70 $5.24b

71 Share Price

72 $2.19

73 $2.91

74 $4.37

75 $5.82

Expand

Share price 6.26c in 2019???

AGY Price at posting: 17.5¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held

0 Great analysis

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Last 8.0¢		Change -0.003(3.61%)		Mkt cap ! $116.4M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
8.3¢	8.3¢	7.9¢	$73.74K	919.1K

Buyers (Bids)

No.	Vol.	Price($)
1	45635	8.0¢

Sellers (Offers)

Price($)	Vol.	No.
8.3¢	92695	2

View Market Depth

No.	Vol.	Price($)
1	45635	0.080
4	146670	0.079
3	407778	0.078
4	39000	0.077
5	331000	0.076

Price($)	Vol.	No.
0.083	92695	2
0.084	58430	1
0.085	11776	1
0.086	128823	2
0.087	100000	1

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