Okay guys, here we go. Bit of a slow day today so here's some of Jez's Calculations I hope you will enjoy and find insightful.
Before i begin, here are a couple of notions i would like to put out there:
1. In the Long-Run AGY will not stop at 10,000-15,000 t.pa. Whoever our Offtake partner will be (most likely a Car Manufacturer), their demand for our lithium product will most likely rise 50-75% p.a in line with the rise in demand for Electronic Cars or other Battery Requiring products. (Think about how much they will want in 4-6 years). By building a close relationship with them by tailoring the product so precisely we stand a great chance to be on the top of their list to supply this lithium. As per the announcements Jerko has also been mentioning more than 1 customer, alternatively -- as soon as we have the money generated to go beyond 10,000-15,000 we will likely do so and expand our wings further to provide to all those demanding our BG product. My forecasted Lithium Output reflects the above.
2. Price Per Tonne of lithium – I have used an estimate of $15,000 USD per tonne. I believe our product should be at least this long term considering how much tailored processing we are doing for our customer that is saving them money.
3. Operating Costs – As per the PEA our operating costs per tonne of lithium is $4,700 USD per tonne. I have also added $1,000 to this amount in my calculations to to cover any other costs that may not have been covered. With economies of scale this cost will drop, but I would rather overstate costs for now.
4. Argentine Export Tax – Quote from recent Announcement “the Argentine government “will impose a new temporary tax of 3 Pesos per US Dollar of export value on goods shipped internationally … which is equivalent to approximately 7.9% based on current exchange rates. … it was noted the tax will only be in place through to the end of 2020”
5. Company Tax – As per recent announcement: Taxable income from mining operations is subject to corporate income tax at the rate of 30% from 1 January 2018, reducing to 25% from 1 January 2020.
- Split Ownership of Project: We have 90% ownership of project. 10% of our project belongs to Puma Mining if im correct? (correct me if im wrong) I therefore assume 10% of the profit goes to them.
- USD / AUD currently $1.39
8. Market Capital – I believe there are around 900 million shares currently on issue, I have calculated estimated Market capital around this basis.
9.
Limitation of Resource - As per the JORC we have 240,000 Tonnes of Lithium. As seen by recent announcements we can spend $500,000 USD to buy neighbouring land that will get us another 20,000 Tonnes of lithium. We also have the option to drill deeper. Because $500,000 USD is not that much in the grand scheme of things i have not included Lithium resource as a limitation.
10.
Disclaimer: I have not included the revenue from Byproducts, there are also many other particular things that may need to be considered in the calculation of financials that i have left out. Capital Payback for Stage 3 funding, potential dilution, and more. These calculations are rough estimates, ballpark figures and not to be taken as financial advise.The Output per annum is also speculation i have moderately supported by facts under the 1st paragraph. The share Prices are based off
profit to equity ratios. Please remember that companies will be worth more in advance, particularly now as we are not in a profit producing stage
|
Column 1 |
Column 2 |
Column 3 |
Column 4 |
Column 5 |
| 1 |
Year
|
2019
|
2020
|
2021
|
2022
|
| 2 |
Output (t p.a)
|
500
|
3,000
|
10,000
|
15,000
|
| 3 |
|
|
|
|
|
| 4 |
X $15,000USD per tonne
|
$7,500,000
|
$45,000,000
|
$150,000,000
|
$225,000,000
|
| 5 |
(4.7k+1k) cost per tonne
|
($2,850,000)
|
($17,100,000)
|
(57,000,000)
|
($85,500,000)
|
| 6 |
Cash Inflow
|
$4,650,000
|
$27,900,000
|
$93,000,000
|
$139,500,000
|
| 7 |
7.9% Export Tax
|
($367,350)
|
($2,204,100)
|
x
|
x
|
| 8 |
10% to Puma
|
($428,265)
|
($2,569,590)
|
($9,300,000)
|
($13,950,000)
|
| 9 |
Company Tax
|
($1,156,316)
|
($6,937,893)
|
($20,925,000)
|
($31,387,500)
|
| 10 |
Net Cash Inflow
|
$2,698,069
|
$16,188,417
|
$62,775,000
|
$94,162,500
|
| 11 |
Net Cash inflow (AUD x1.39)
|
$3,750.316
|
$22,501,899
|
$87,257,250
|
$130,885,875
|
| 12 |
P/E 10 MC
|
$37.5m
|
$225m
|
$872.5m
|
$1.31b
|
| 13 |
Share Price
|
4.17c
|
25c
|
97c
|
$1.46
|
| 14 |
P/E 15 MC
|
$56.25m
|
$337.5
|
$1.309B
|
$1.97b
|
| 15 |
Share Price
|
6.26c
|
37.5c
|
$1.46
|
$2.19
|
|
Column 1 |
Column 2 |
Column 3 |
Column 4 |
Column 5 |
| 1 |
Year
|
2023
|
2024
|
2025
|
2026
|
| 2 |
Output (t p.a)
|
15,000
|
20,000
|
30,000
|
40,000
|
| 3 |
|
|
|
|
|
| 4 |
X $15,000USD per tonne
|
$225,000,000
|
$300,000,000
|
$450,000,000
|
$600,000,000
|
| 5 |
(4.7k+1k) cost per tonne
|
($85,500,000)
|
($114,000,000)
|
($171,000,000)
|
($228,000,000)
|
| 6 |
Cash Inflow
|
$139,500,000
|
$186,000,000
|
$279,000,000
|
$372,000,000
|
| 7 |
7.9% Export Tax
|
x
|
x
|
x
|
x
|
| 8 |
10% to Puma
|
($13,950,000)
|
($18,600,000)
|
($27,900,000)
|
($37,200,000)
|
| 9 |
Company Tax
|
($31,387,500)
|
($41,850,000)
|
($62,775,000)
|
($83,700,000)
|
| 10 |
Net Cash Inflow
|
$94,162,500
|
$125,550,000
|
$188,325,000
|
$251,100,000
|
| 11 |
Net Cash inflow (AUD x1.39)
|
$130,885,875
|
$174,514,500
|
$261,771,750
|
$349,029,000
|
| 12 |
P/E 10 MC
|
$1.31b
|
$1.74b
|
$2,62b
|
$3.49b
|
| 13 |
Share Price
|
$1.46
|
$1.94
|
$2.91
|
$3.88
|
| 14 |
P/E 15 MC
|
$1.97b
|
$2.61b
|
$3.93b
|
$5.24b
|
| 15 |
Share Price
|
$2.19
|
$2.91
|
$4.37
|
$5.82
|
(20min delay)