AGY (ASX) General Comments &amp; Banter

Originally posted by Jezzaaa: ↑
Okay guys, here we go. Bit of a slow day today so here's some of Jez's Calculations I hope you will enjoy and find insightful.

Before i begin, here are a couple of notions i would like to put out there:

1. In the Long-Run AGY will not stop at 10,000-15,000 t.pa. Whoever our Offtake partner will be (most likely a Car Manufacturer), their demand for our lithium product will most likely rise 50-75% p.a in line with the rise in demand for Electronic Cars or other Battery Requiring products. (Think about how much they will want in 4-6 years). By building a close relationship with them by tailoring the product so precisely we stand a great chance to be on the top of their list to supply this lithium. As per the announcements Jerko has also been mentioning more than 1 customer, alternatively -- as soon as we have the money generated to go beyond 10,000-15,000 we will likely do so and expand our wings further to provide to all those demanding our BG product. My forecasted Lithium Output reflects the above.

2. Price Per Tonne of lithium – I have used an estimate of $15,000 USD per tonne. I believe our product should be at least this long term considering how much tailored processing we are doing for our customer that is saving them money.

3. Operating Costs – As per the PEA our operating costs per tonne of lithium is $4,700 USD per tonne. I have also added $1,000 to this amount in my calculations to to cover any other costs that may not have been covered. With economies of scale this cost will drop, but I would rather overstate costs for now.

4. Argentine Export Tax – Quote from recent Announcement “the Argentine government “will impose a new temporary tax of 3 Pesos per US Dollar of export value on goods shipped internationally … which is equivalent to approximately 7.9% based on current exchange rates. … it was noted the tax will only be in place through to the end of 2020”

5. Company Tax – As per recent announcement: Taxable income from mining operations is subject to corporate income tax at the rate of 30% from 1 January 2018, reducing to 25% from 1 January 2020.

Split Ownership of Project: We have 90% ownership of project. 10% of our project belongs to Puma Mining if im correct? (correct me if im wrong) I therefore assume 10% of the profit goes to them.
USD / AUD currently $1.39

8. Market Capital – I believe there are around 900 million shares currently on issue, I have calculated estimated Market capital around this basis.

9. Limitation of Resource - As per the JORC we have 240,000 Tonnes of Lithium. As seen by recent announcements we can spend $500,000 USD to buy neighbouring land that will get us another 20,000 Tonnes of lithium. We also have the option to drill deeper. Because $500,000 USD is not that much in the grand scheme of things i have not included Lithium resource as a limitation.

10. Disclaimer: I have not included the revenue from Byproducts, there are also many other particular things that may need to be considered in the calculation of financials that i have left out. Capital Payback for Stage 3 funding, potential dilution, and more. These calculations are rough estimates, ballpark figures and not to be taken as financial advise.The Output per annum is also speculation i have moderately supported by facts under the 1st paragraph. The share Prices are based off profit to equity ratios. Please remember that companies will be worth more in advance, particularly now as we are not in a profit producing stage

Column 1 Column 2 Column 3 Column 4 Column 5
1 Year 2019 2020 2021 2022
2 Output (t p.a) 500 3,000 10,000 15,000
3

4 X $15,000USD per tonne $7,500,000 $45,000,000 $150,000,000 $225,000,000
5 (4.7k+1k) cost per tonne ($2,850,000) ($17,100,000) (57,000,000) ($85,500,000)
6 Cash Inflow $4,650,000 $27,900,000 $93,000,000 $139,500,000
7 7.9% Export Tax ($367,350) ($2,204,100) x x
8 10% to Puma ($428,265) ($2,569,590) ($9,300,000) ($13,950,000)
9 Company Tax ($1,156,316) ($6,937,893) ($20,925,000) ($31,387,500)
10 Net Cash Inflow $2,698,069 $16,188,417 $62,775,000 $94,162,500
11 Net Cash inflow (AUD x1.39) $3,750.316 $22,501,899 $87,257,250 $130,885,875
12 P/E 10 MC $37.5m $225m $872.5m $1.31b
13 Share Price 4.17c 25c 97c $1.46
14 P/E 15 MC $56.25m $337.5 $1.309B $1.97b
15 Share Price 6.26c 37.5c $1.46 $2.19

Column 1 Column 2 Column 3 Column 4 Column 5
1 Year 2023 2024 2025 2026
2 Output (t p.a) 15,000 20,000 30,000 40,000
3

4 X $15,000USD per tonne $225,000,000 $300,000,000 $450,000,000 $600,000,000
5 (4.7k+1k) cost per tonne ($85,500,000) ($114,000,000) ($171,000,000) ($228,000,000)
6 Cash Inflow $139,500,000 $186,000,000 $279,000,000 $372,000,000
7 7.9% Export Tax x x x x
8 10% to Puma ($13,950,000) ($18,600,000) ($27,900,000) ($37,200,000)
9 Company Tax ($31,387,500) ($41,850,000) ($62,775,000) ($83,700,000)
10 Net Cash Inflow $94,162,500 $125,550,000 $188,325,000 $251,100,000
11 Net Cash inflow (AUD x1.39) $130,885,875 $174,514,500 $261,771,750 $349,029,000
12 P/E 10 MC $1.31b $1.74b $2,62b $3.49b
13 Share Price $1.46 $1.94 $2.91 $3.88
14 P/E 15 MC $1.97b $2.61b $3.93b $5.24b
15 Share Price $2.19 $2.91 $4.37 $5.82
Expand
Finance cost to get to 15000 tpa/ dilution through capital placement?

No.	Vol.	Price($)
2	2026489	4.2¢

No.

Vol.

Price($)

2026489

4.2¢

Price($)	Vol.	No.
4.4¢	193027	2

Price($)

Vol.

No.

4.4¢

193027

No.	Vol.	Price($)
1	900000	0.042
3	222000	0.040
5	1331853	0.039
9	747851	0.038
16	1415149	0.037

No.

Vol.

Price($)

900000

0.042

222000

0.040

1331853

0.039

747851

0.038

1415149

0.037

Price($)	Vol.	No.
0.044	193027	2
0.045	188813	4
0.046	875726	7
0.047	350237	3
0.048	100000	1

Price($)

Vol.

No.

0.044

193027

0.045

188813

0.046

875726

0.047

350237

0.048

100000

(20min delay)
Last 4.2¢		Change 0.003(7.69%)		Mkt cap ! $61.14M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
3.9¢	4.6¢	3.9¢	$556.4K	13.01M

General Comments & Banter, page-10358

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	Column 1	Column 2	Column 3	Column 4	Column 5
1	Year	2019	2020	2021	2022
2	Output (t p.a)	500	3,000	10,000	15,000
3
4	X $15,000USD per tonne	$7,500,000	$45,000,000	$150,000,000	$225,000,000
5	(4.7k+1k) cost per tonne	($2,850,000)	($17,100,000)	(57,000,000)	($85,500,000)
6	Cash Inflow	$4,650,000	$27,900,000	$93,000,000	$139,500,000
7	7.9% Export Tax	($367,350)	($2,204,100)	x	x
8	10% to Puma	($428,265)	($2,569,590)	($9,300,000)	($13,950,000)
9	Company Tax	($1,156,316)	($6,937,893)	($20,925,000)	($31,387,500)
10	Net Cash Inflow	$2,698,069	$16,188,417	$62,775,000	$94,162,500
11	Net Cash inflow (AUD x1.39)	$3,750.316	$22,501,899	$87,257,250	$130,885,875
12	P/E 10 MC	$37.5m	$225m	$872.5m	$1.31b
13	Share Price	4.17c	25c	97c	$1.46
14	P/E 15 MC	$56.25m	$337.5	$1.309B	$1.97b
15	Share Price	6.26c	37.5c	$1.46	$2.19

	Column 1	Column 2	Column 3	Column 4	Column 5
1	Year	2023	2024	2025	2026
2	Output (t p.a)	15,000	20,000	30,000	40,000
3
4	X $15,000USD per tonne	$225,000,000	$300,000,000	$450,000,000	$600,000,000
5	(4.7k+1k) cost per tonne	($85,500,000)	($114,000,000)	($171,000,000)	($228,000,000)
6	Cash Inflow	$139,500,000	$186,000,000	$279,000,000	$372,000,000
7	7.9% Export Tax	x	x	x	x
8	10% to Puma	($13,950,000)	($18,600,000)	($27,900,000)	($37,200,000)
9	Company Tax	($31,387,500)	($41,850,000)	($62,775,000)	($83,700,000)
10	Net Cash Inflow	$94,162,500	$125,550,000	$188,325,000	$251,100,000
11	Net Cash inflow (AUD x1.39)	$130,885,875	$174,514,500	$261,771,750	$349,029,000
12	P/E 10 MC	$1.31b	$1.74b	$2,62b	$3.49b
13	Share Price	$1.46	$1.94	$2.91	$3.88
14	P/E 15 MC	$1.97b	$2.61b	$3.93b	$5.24b
15	Share Price	$2.19	$2.91	$4.37	$5.82

General Comments & Banter, page-10358

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