So if I try to look at this without rose coloured glasses, I see that the company might have to give up a majority in the company to get the $140mill equity required. So le's just for now assume we give the partner 1200,000,000 @ $0.1175 per share in return for funds ( with some form of proviso that they can not sell any for a few years ) So what will this mean....???
approx. 2100,000,000 shares on the registry BUT full scale production, so
10 TPA min at , approx. $7000 net profit per tonne, of which AGY would keep 90% ( up from current 77.7% with Puna ,after we go to 90% for securing finance ) Assuming sale price of $11500 p/t minus $4500 p/t costs ( the sale price I think will be closer to $13000 p/t given we are providing an end product for our partner , ie little or no further processing by them required ) , so a net profit of approx. $63 mil per year or $0.03 per share. You multiply that at a conservative multiple of 20 ( ie so returning 5% for investors ) that gives you a share price of around $0.60 per share.
Even if you allow for company only returning 60% for dividends and re investing the other 40% gives you a share price of $0.36 before you add the any GP from the investments they make.
This is a simplistic overview however you can see where I am going with this , happy to hear an alternative valuation if they do decide to sell a majority share in co. For me I just cant see a downside... because any large investment by a big company will mean this thing going into full scale production !
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