Looking back at the path Argosy Minerals has been down over the last few years it’s hard to believe that we are sitting at a SP under 10c. We saw highs over 40 cents as all Lithium companies rushed on the Adrenalin of the EV revolution and the excitement shareholders had looking at Lithium as the white gold that would make us all rich!
Then, as hard as it ran up, MS and others instilled fears of oversupply (and a Tsunami of lithium!) which brought the markets falling back nearly as hard as they had run up. Obviously looking back now this never happened... The likes of Benchmark Minerals and Joe Lowry as well as other industry experts combated reports, it was just not enough to stop the retail fear as those that had bought in high, looked towards the exit doors to conserve capital. Those that were the “early finders” of Argosy Minerals also moved position to take profits and as much as Jerko and team could announce the milestones we saw prices spiking only to be beaten down straight away by relentless selling as traders and retailers scramble to make profit and cover. It sure didn’t help as Carbonate spot prices out of China, for what we now know as being low grade LCE, fell.
Nearly half way through 2019 and we now find ourselves in a position which I think is one where a stable base can be formed and we should be able to sustain some re-rating of the SP that holds. I think a lot of washing would have been done with the last CR and holders that weren’t able to manage the risk, would have gotten out as price declined to the levels we are at now. I tend to think a lot of investors rushed in to get rich quick and they are probably out now looking for the next big thing.... Faith in the company and management is definitely required and I think reading the forums the last few years we definitely have a number of posters that have that faith and some that don’t (maybe gone now?). A lot of the original posters have stopped posting however I am sure they are still here and holding onto their shares knowing that the makings of a future lithium producer are in safe hands with Jerko and team, and posting is not going to change anything right now.
Sentiment will turn around in the sector... It has to. Nearly all OEM’s are developing EV models and we are starting to see new EV’s and advertising as they move towards production. Home Battery Storage will ramp up as governments move to be green and the general population realise that everyone needs to do their bit if we want our earth to prosper and be clean. And of course it will be simply cheaper to own an EV and things will take off. It’s not that far off in my opinion. I envisage more TV ads and billboards etc becoming the norm very soon. Wait till VW start ramping up!
Back to Argosy and I see a few things that I think are being overlooked and certainly not priced in anymore. They definitely were priced in and maybe too much so, hence part of the required decline.
The biggest is IP and management IMO. It’s relatively easy to look at valuing a company from a capital point of view however it’s the unknown like IP and managements skill in running the company successfully which gets tricky. I am confident Jerko has what it takes from a management point of view and he certainly has the incentive to do it with his future and his families all invested heavily. A big box ticked from a spec investing POV to have management with so much skin in the game!
Our IP – Pablo Alurralde and Puna Mining. This is where I think investors have forgotten what’s important and what sets Argosy apart from a lot of other Lithium companies. Look at Galaxy and the SDV JV process. They are looking for a company to be in a JV that can bring finance and more importantly IP, they engaged JO Morgan to help them and have now closed out the process with JP Morgan – imagine if they had a Pablo. Look at the commentary around Battery Grade pricing and difficulties in producing the grades that high end battery suppliers need. Look at commentary from Industry experts around the difficulties in bringing a mine to production and getting finance in the current market. More importantly how hard it is to find skill and expertise in lithium chemical processing - Argosy have this in Pablo. The JV with Puna and Pablo Alurralde is so SO undervalued in my opinion. Keen to hear more on the Hydroxide solution too. Another tick for Pablo!
Argosy are finally on the cusp of showing the industry that their solution works at scale. Sure we have produced the grades but until we see the pilot plant proving it can do it over and over producing multiple tons of high spec material we are really only assuming from announcements that it can. This is where faith comes in right now, and some basic research. Those that have researched or been around long enough here know that Pablo’s experience is what will make Argosy and Puna a success. Pablo and Jerko have everything invested in this project and it’s not going to fail IMO. We are on the path to success.
For those that don’t know, Pablo Alurralde is a Chemical Engineer with 15 years in seniormanagement producing LCE and 30 years’ experience designing chemical processes.Pablo worked on FMC’s brine project at Hombre Muerto and has his name on someof FMC’s Patents. Pablo has vast knowledge within the Lithium triangle Salars’and he specifically chose the Rincon Salar for a variety of reasons. I seem toremember BTH finding out he even has extended family in the local Saltagovernment which is a big plus. I am sure he would have many contacts in theindustry and locally to Rincon and Salta where the plant is. If you want moreinfo go back and look up past announcements and use Google! There are lots ofpast posts from the early days with some great info and insights into Pablo andhis expertise.
You can’t buy this skill and decades of industry knowledge and expertise....Ganfeng even tried to get Pablo onboard from memory! It’s this IP that I see issomething that makes this company what it is and what potential the company has.The Market has now priced this outunfortunately but it won’t take much for it to be priced back in.
...Mostly in my opinion andhappy to be pulled up on any inaccuracies by posters long forgotten but highlyrespected
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Price($) | Vol. | No. |
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