Thats interesting Damo - but did you factor in dilution via placements and/or debt in form of convertible bonds potentially? And how much did your factor in?
Just wondering how you got to the base case sp of 19c. I am assuming you value it on Agy's stated targets of productions?
Agy is a unique one as you basically cannot put any value on its resource base as its too low grade and in the lower end of JORC reserves its almost unmarketable. So i would discount it fully and just base off production numbers.
But you know if you are valuing agy on production you should allow for provisions and disocunts due to production targets underperforming and inefficiencies.
I just find valuing a company like agy on future production to be highly risky as opposed to valuing something with a measureable and marketable resource base.
So yes - just a few reasons i was interested in your numbers.
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