AGY 1.08% 9.2¢ argosy minerals limited

General Comments & Banter, page-14605

  1. 1,524 Posts.
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    Good subjects Jez... and good timing cause I've just finished summarising and reviewing my notes from the AGM.

    Here's my take aways on these subjects:
    • Carbonate price is currently around $10 - $12k/tonne and hydroxide $12 - $15k/tonne. Difference is quality and different markets pay different prices..... Japan pays the biggest premium, then Korea and then China.
    • Supply/demand is not well understood, and those less knowledgeable group all in one bucket rather then understanding the different considerations:
      • There is an oversupply of spodumene, but also a bottleneck in the ability to convert it.
      • There's also a glut of poor quality brine supply from China.
      • However, quality supply is limited, and the Euro car makers, as well as Japan and Korean conglomerates can't get enough supply to implement their long-term requirements, eg a Korean conglomerate currently needs 10k/tonne, want to increase that to 50k/tonne over next two years and then in 2023 want 150k/tonnes.
    • The Mitsubishi agreement was all about the long-term strategic firming up of the relationship, and diddly squat to do with the 100t. It demonstrated that AGY has a saleable product, vouched for and qualified by a tier 1 entity and firmed up the relationship with Mitsubishi to build and progress to the next stage.
    IMO, there's a lot more happening and progressed with Mitsubishi then we realise/know about.

    Also IMO, the key to unlocking finance for Stg 2 is proving the initial on-going product produced from the Pilot plant and the development approval granted by the local Salta Gov for the Stg 2 plant.



    With respect to the lithium price, it's also worth taking the time to realise the what is initially perceived as a negative is also a potential positive.

    AGY are well placed at the moment compared to peers endeavouring to get their projects off the ground and into production. With the current progress achieved and infrastructure already established by AGY , they can have a profitable operation at $10k/tonne, but for other emerging entities the current price makes it very difficult/challenging. Hence AGY's long-term success over others is more assured, ie as demand picks up they move further and further to the top of a short list of producers.
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