RAC

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$1.47 race oncology ltd

General Comments / Chat, page-11591

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30/09/24

15:20

Post #: 75908106
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Originally posted by JBeez_: ↑

Note this refers to a 10% royalty paid to RAC for the out-licensing of bisantrene, which is not necessarily the same royalty paid to RAC holders.

I actually think 10% is a very conservative estimate, and as far as I can tell they make no mention of upfronts and milestones that will surely be incorporated into any transaction.

There are probably 5 super conservative estimates in that screen shot alone:

no upfronts or milestones
10% royalty
32% success rate (based on industry-accepted ranges that do not account for the clinical history of bisantrene)
target market that excludes the highest anthracycline market in the world (and every other jurisdiction outside the US and Europe)
10% peak market penetration

I find the 10% market penetration most peculiar. If you assume for a second that CPACs is demonstrated unequivocally in the clinical trials, you're telling me that 90% of the market are going to ignore a therapy that is proven to not only improve the rate of cancer-killing, but protects the patients from cardiotoxic harm. That is a ridiculous assumption, and is antithetical to the core principles of medicine in the first place. I personally think if you assume that bisantrene makes it to the market, your uptake rates have to be far higher, AT LEAST 50% but possibly far higher. I just cannot see a physician in the world that refuses to give bisantrene to patients assuming it does actually protect from cardiotoxicity.

Of course I understand why such conservative estimates have to be used, because as mentioned many times on this forum, the numbers genuinely look unbelievable.

This is truly a mind bogglingly large opportunity if executed to plan.

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Agree with all your points except one.

Re excluding China, maybe most anthracycline patients in China can't afford bisantrene, and maybe their health insurers won't pay?
Happy to be corrected.
RAC Price at posting: $1.80 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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