RAC race oncology ltd

2.82%

$1.21

It's a bit of a joke really.MST downgraded RAC from $5.29 to...

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johndprent

4,501 Posts.

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30/09/24

16:26

Post #: 75909913
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Originally posted by Mason14: ↑

Hey mate. It is at these times that I wish the great man Wombat was still with us. For those who had the pleasure of knowing him, it is known that he would have been all over this and many would benefit from it.

As I understand them, some of the major differences in the MST model and mine are as follows:
1. MST use lower patient population (48,475 vs 57,165)
2. MST use a lower probability of success (32% vs 50.3% in high risk model)
3. MST use a lower discount rate (12.5% vs 15% in high risk model)
4. MST use a royalties model to calculate their NPV (10%), while I base mine purely off peak sales
5. MST use a 3% yearly increase in net price per annum, while I do not
6. MST assume revenues start later (2030 vs 2028)
7. I can't be sure how they have determined market penetration from 2030 to 2039, but it probably does not reflect my modelling

While both royalty-based and revenue-based rNPVs are both applicable to RAC, I do not have the knowledge to comment on which is better. While RAC may license Bisantrene to geographical locations, they are chasing a large commercial transaction, which are typically peak sales multiplied by 3-5. This is not captured by the MST report focusing purely on royalty payments.

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It's a bit of a joke really.

MST downgraded RAC from $5.29 to $2.63 in May 2024 (less than 5 months ago!); a result of the change in strategy to CPACS w/ Anthracyclines.

Today they've increased their valuation to $6.37; the kicker, it's because the upside offered in CPACS w/ Anthracyclines!

MST is a fantastic lagging indicator of value/risk. I'm incredibly confident of RAC's actual underlying value, today.

RAC Price at posting: $1.79 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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(20min delay)
Last $1.21		Change -0.035(2.82%)		Mkt cap ! $211.0M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
$1.24	$1.24	$1.21	$28.96K	23.78K

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No.	Vol.	Price($)
2	21004	$1.21

Sellers (Offers)

Price($)	Vol.	No.
$1.23	8953	2

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No.	Vol.	Price($)
2	21004	1.205
5	30774	1.200
1	522	1.195
2	19167	1.190
3	4409	1.180

Price($)	Vol.	No.
1.225	8953	2
1.230	8250	2
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1.245	1355	1
1.250	4319	2

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