Thats a good point Bruce. I realise now that I may have mixed things up.Here is my thinking (flawed or otherwise)!
What I meant to say is that the reason for this blackout, in my view, is probably something we as shareholders aren’t expecting. It’s unexpected from our perspective. And when the company does eventually make an announcement (which it now should, given that it's been made clear that something is going on), it could go either way: positive or negative. We are not supposed to know about it for many reasons including that - it could be positive or negative!
Clearly, the company does not know what the outcome will be, otherwise they would have to inform the market. And I take your point that they certainly don't have anything bad known to them at the moment (otherwise they would have to inform the market). But they are clearly aware that if it turns out to be positive, it would be material. But then - even the trials underway are in that class! They don't always turn out well. Hard and diligent work will improve the probability of success: but the result could still be negative.
I guess what I’m really trying to do is shift the mindset away from the idea that there’s some imminent (I don't know if the company considers it imminent), known event we’re all waiting for, which will automatically trigger a rerate. That may not be the case at all. Sentiment has shifted quite a lot: At $1.36, we were talking about getting out the vacuum cleaners to scoop up cheap shares! At $1.30, some suggested we stump up and each buy $1000 worth of shares to defend the price! At $1.26, it was about how resilient longs were as they defended that psychological $1.25 level! At $1.20, we were all talking about the obvious trade in front of us - but not actually taking it. Now we’re touching 95c, unsure which way this goes!
And yet, we hold onto this idea that some piece of news on a subject we do not know, where others we do not control are involved to the point of keeping our directors in blackout for a year or so, will lift us out of this!
Maybe its the execution that is missing! Maybe we should just hit the milestones and let any news be the icing on top if it turns out to be positive. Because right now, with the ‘orange man’ in charge, we don’t even know whether the deals (if thats what we are waiting on) will even materialise!
Thats where I was coming from!
RAC Price at posting:
$1.00 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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