A correction to your Scenario 2 calculation is required:
At buyout, in June 2022, for a buyout price of $30:
Your profit is: $30 - $3 = $27 * 116,667 shares= $3.15m
Taxable profit (at highest tax rate, approx 50%)after holding for 12 months= $3.15m / 2 = $1.575m at 50% = $0.7875m
So your profit after tax= $3.15m - $0.7875m = $2.3625m.
However, in scenario 2 you would also pay tax onthe sale at $3.5 (sold on 8/4) and yourinitial purchase price is $2 bought around Nov 2020.
So, for 100,000 shares the profit is $3.5 - $2 = $1.5 * 100,000 shares = $0.15m
Shares held less than 1 year, so full amount istaxed at 50% (approx). So tax = $0.075m
Net profit = $2.3625m - $0.075m = $2.2875m
In scenario 2 you gain $187,500 more than inscenario 1.
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