General Comments / Chat, page-5184

Thank you correcting @Jdmoney - I got confused by TNBC vs. breast cancer as a whole.

So, according to the analyst quoted in the same article [1], we have an estimated 4.7b in peak sales in breast cancer (read: for both mTNBC and HER-2 negative breast cancer indications). And "To justify the $21 billion acquisition price for Immunomedics, Trodelvy needs to hit around $4 billion to $5 billion in peak sales, analysts have figured".

Therefore, we have 4.7b forecast vs 4.5b to break even. That leaves Gilead with a <5% margin of error. Then, there's clinical risk, "Phase 3 data from the TROPiCS-02 trial in third-line HR-positive, HER2-negative breast cancer is expected to read out toward the end of this year, which Porges suggested could affect Trodelvy’s outlook in a big way". Another article worth a read [2] mentions that Gilead is "pretty confident" that the P3 trial will deliver, but the author had a word of caution nonetheless. One final upside, Immunomedics had other drugs in its pipeline but it seems the deal was really about Trodelvy.

This strikes me as a particularly tight deal for Gilead and a great one for Immunomedics.



[1] https://www.fiercepharma.com/marketing/gilead-snags-full-trodelvy-tnbc-nod-but-it-needs-more-to-make-21b-immunomedics-buy
[2] https://www.evaluate.com/vantage/articles/events/company-events/heat-gilead-tropics-readout-nears