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21B ? - tell’em they’re dreamin!

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virtuozi

517 Posts.

144

06/02/22

04:25

Post #: 59384624
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Originally posted by yannpiot: ↑

Don't get me wrong JD, 21b is an outstanding outcome for Immunomedics, however they still did not achieve blue sky potential:

https://www.fiercepharma.com/marketing/gilead-snags-full-trodelvy-tnbc-nod-but-it-needs-more-to-make-21b-immunomedics-buy

"SVB Leerink analyst Geoffrey Porges has previously outlined roughly $1.5 billion in peak sales for Trodelvy in third-line TNBC alone, while Abrahams has forecast $4.7 billion in peak sales in breast cancer. To justify the $21 billion acquisition price for Immunomedics, Trodelvy needs to hit around $4 billion to $5 billion in peak sales, analysts have figured."

If we multiply 4.7b peak sales forecast by the buyout multiple (4.5 times annual peak sales, as this figure is often used on the forum), we end up with 21.15b which is very close to the buyout value. Therefore, I would argue the bulk of the buyout valuation was based solely on the initial indications (mTNBC).

In saying that, if RAC is ever offered 21b for Zantrene, that would be terrific, even though RAC's blue sky potential is possibly many multiples of that!

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21B ? - tell’em they’re dreamin!

RAC Price at posting: $2.94 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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