Hey Mason, welcome back and glad to have your input.I agree...

Hey Mason, welcome back and glad to have your input.

I agree totally on the ideal trial outcome that you envisage, but unless I'm misunderstanding you, I fear we're still quite a way off achieving that. I'm not sure that we have such a trial in the planning stages yet because we'll need to get data from current trial(s) to enable the development of the companion diagnostic - please see this snippet from Dr. T. from the other forum:


So we first need to gather that data and then design a new trial based on that data... which is going to take some time to do - possibly we'd be looking at late next year at the earliest to start such a trial depending on recruitment of the upcoming trial(s).

Unfortunately that means that the Israel trial we currently have running and the other trials starting soon and later this year are going to have to do the heavy lifting in the short term. So whilst I understand that the Israel data may be "a bit meh" to you (and I remember reading that in the past so I know you've had this opinion for a while - and of course you may well be right), I think that the market may view good or bad results out of this trial with more importance.

My reasons for saying this are two-fold:

• Zantrene as an FTO/Solid Tumour/Cardio-protection opportunity is obviously given a fairly low value by the market currently. We'll start to get some clinical data later this year on these which can hopefully translate into an increased appreciation of the opportunities. In the meantime though, good results in the Israel trial could help to shore up a base-line value of Zantrene as a salvage therapy or possibly potential as a new SoC AML treatment. Even as a salvage therapy I understand Zantrene should be valued at several times our current EV (which is approximately USD 190 million), so this could give a nice lift to the share price to serve as a springboard to build on other opportunities down the track.
• The market in general, and specifically for RAC, seems to place more emphasis on clinical results than it does on pre-clinical.

So I feel that whilst the results from the Israel trial may not have a huge impact on the long-term value of RAC, they may well significantly impact the RAC share price in the short term. You are right with the dartboard analogy, but luckily for us Zantrene seems to have been fairly successful at hitting the dartboard blindfolded in the past and so I hope it doesn't start missing this time. Having said that I think we have a number of reasons to be optimistic about the Israel trial results, including:

• The new combination of drugs for this trial is backed by solid pre-clinical data showing improved performance vs single agent Zantrene.
• Daniel recently said that it would be unusual for a combination trial to produce results worse than a single agent trial. Admittedly the small number of patients does introduce statistical risk in this regard, so I hope that the last trial didn't set the bar too high!
• The patient population for this trial are less advanced in disease than the prior trial and so should therefore be easier to treat than the previous Sheba trial.
• Some suspect that there has been ongoing compassionate usage of Zantrene in between the trials, in which case there has hopefully been a chance to put any lessons learned to good use.
• "No news is good news" at this stage, so we know there have not been any significant adverse events so far.

In summary, I definitely agree with you on the long-term, but short term I think upcoming trial results are going to be significant (perhaps more significant than they should be), and I'm hoping for, and think we have a reasonable chance to expect, a good outcome as a result.