Recently I realised something very simple which got me thinking...

Recently I realised something very simple which got me thinking differently.

When it comes to race my philosophy has always been never sell a share. This is because I think it has super strong fundamentals. And because I am a simple, inexperienced investor who does not understand any of the complex stuff.

Most people here have already invested as much as we think is reasonable based on the chances of long term (buyout) success for race.I’ve recently got to a point where I have “enough’ shares (and topped up a couple more times at these cheap prices).

But In my mind positive news for race seems even more likely in the short term. No matter what, there’s things that could go wrong in the long term. So although I like the long term chances - I like the short term chances even better. The price is just so low now and I think people will be surprised how easily it goes back to $3 or $4 with good news.

My simple logic also tells me that all biotech has been getting smashed for a while so that’s probably going to change at some point.

So my point is, the short term outlook for RACE is even more positive than the long term. So I’ve invested a bit more than I would and depending on how I feel I might sell a little in 3.6,12 months. The rest I’ll keep invested til the end.

This is a more sensible safe approach. Previously I was approaching this as all or nothing. Many of you will call that foolish, but I’m comfortable with it.

It’s dumb but splitting things in two helped me. I’ve realised there were two questions I should ask myself.
1) what are the chances of long term success? (large buyout)
2) What are the chances the share price will recover in six - 12 months?

I’m quite confident about 1, and very confident of 2.

Recently race has been getting out there, Damian has good connections with Novartis, theres city of hope partnership potential, Damian can’t buy because of blackout period etc. Lots of things seem to be going on to suggest positive progress. So I’m taking a short term punt as well as a long term punt on RACE.

This is super obvious, but just wanted to share my thoughts.