As much grief as hunter gets, or others for "ramping" i hope my...

As much grief as hunter gets, or others for "ramping"

i hope my posts don't come off that way, i try to look at the facts or potential and then work backwards. Also trying not to let my own emotion cloud my judgement on it. Its easy to say "if its too good to be true, it probably is" Yet we can point to 10s of multiple company's that often start out rocky, sold off, and end up compounding over a long period.

I look at many of the buyouts in the pharma industry and a common theme is acquiring something "Different" be it a FIC, BIC, rare disease, unmet need, high priced, small indication etc. There's always an edge by picking up the drug that gives pharma a clear road to be able to generate and grow revenue. If you've ever sold anything, and your selling something that's all ready out there, the first question you'll get is why is yours better or different to X? Its much harder to grow unless you can show value over an above the status quo.

In regards to valuation, there's always the optimistic, Hunter etc. and pessimistic, and both seem to be arguing from consequence, as LT calls it "logical fallacy" People are concluding or expecting a result based on their own belief of desirable or undesirable outcome, (ie because expectations haven't been met, or the SP has declined, il now be happy to accept lower)
Another example is we seen the lofty valuations of $300 per share in 2021, have quickly been reduced to $30... despite potential revenue supporting even higher numbers.

Much work to do between now and then, but if we look at the facts its easier to prove a $50> valuation on efficacy than it is to prove a $10 one. Someone using the drug as a supportive care, non anti cancer drug in the US alone, supports a $10 valuation IMO. (15yrs of $300-$450m au) could be worth north of $2.5b in profits for BP alone after costs, marketing, and sales (assuming 55%) and buying RAC for $1.6B
Remember its the life cycle of the drugs revenue that brings in the $$, they model this stuff out. This is why triangle report is suggesting $5.29 to $13.23 for supportive care only.

Right now, i view the opportunity as a scale Between current 80c > $1000 if approved, across multiple indications, markets, and countries.
Board/management issues aside, the value of opportunity based on the facts alone is heavily skewed to the upside medium to long term.