my guess Eddy is that spp flippers washout by early to mid-jan,...

my guess Eddy is that spp flippers washout by early to mid-jan, and then we are on a re-rate.
Ok
If you think maybe 40% of shares will be flipped that’s about 4m shares to be sold... over 20 trading days thats 200k a day - perhaps a bit more than average daily volumes over the last few months. I think that between the oversubscribed funds and new investors attracted by the cardio story and positive SPP, there will be sufficient demand to soak up these and any further stock that BG wants to sell. I think I overall we’ll see a rise in average volumes compared to the last few months, and our friends here who track the brokers will tell us that commsec and other retail brokers have an elevated share (as the spp washes out).

Then, I think we can see a re-rate even without further news. The cardio-protection story is much easier to understand, and I think the positive SPP response will also attract attention. The inability to attract new retail buyers is what has been restraining the share price over the last few months IMO, but I think enough has happened now to see that move. We also have more expected news of course - I think ethics approval for emd trial is first up, but more after that (and I really like that Amgen Christmas card one that one insightful poster highlighted).

will be interesting to see if there is much of a blip at $4.50, but I think we are $5+ come March (short term with flippers I think maybe a $3.11 low).