I think steady state nameplate production on the 2,000TPA plant is more of a given than the permit, especially in the eyes of the market, which in terms of the share price is more important than our own perception or the reality.
The actual pilot plant (which still produced tonnes of high quality product) showed that we can do it, the method works. Our current 'demo plant' (which will bring in millions of dollars per week, heh) is based on the exact same method we've already proven, it'll work. The question here is just when. I actually love seeing it called a demo plant; it alone almost justifies the entire market cap and we do indeed plan to expand to multiples of it.
The permit... I'm 95% sure we'll get it (let's not kid ourselves, nothing in this world is 100% until it happens), and it sure has been discussed to death around here lately, sometimes foolishly, sometimes very dishonestly, sometimes puzzlingly. Let's be honest and realistic and admit that AGY management told us to expect it in 2021 and it's now 2023. If we did get it yesterday it would have been over a year after management expected we'd have it. I'm expecting it in around six months, hopefully a little sooner, more likely a little later. The market will definitely react very well to that news, because it will very clearly make us worth so much more than our current market cap, so clearly the market is highly sceptical that we'll get it (I'm 95% sure it's wrong and we'll be laughing all the way to the bank).
Totally agree, offtake is overblown. People here were mocking me over a year ago for saying I didn't want one because I expected the lithium price to increase. I still don't want one. If we had locked in a price the market would have loved it at the time and we'd have regretted it later. If you're bullish on lithium prices, why hope to lock prices in? We all know we're not going to have any trouble selling our product. In the short term the market just wants surety and would also love a high profile buyer. Personally I don't much care if I get paid from some unknown little electronics manufacturer or the spot market or Tesla/GM, I just want the best price. Unless you expect the price of lithium to crash, an offtake agreement is a red herring. Having said that, we probably will get one when our plant is producing more product, and the market will love it.
Resource expansion, yes, of course we are going to get it, you can't look a little deeper and find zero, but we don't know if it'll be a small percentage increase or a large multiple. The market is definitely going to react according to the size of the upgrade.
And of course when it comes to exploration drilling... Tonopah.
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