To be fair, if I was someone that just landed fresh on this stock, it would take me a while to figure out the fair value of the company. By the time I'd covered all the announcements and get to the Preliminary Economic Assessment, I would pretty much disregard it because it is 5 years old already.
I believe I built my FA model back around 2018 (before you ask, I had AGY valued at 65c, with a 10ktpa output, no Tonopah, and $20k/tn flat LCE price). Since then, AGY has not offered much in terms of data points to keep any DCF model updated, thus anyone interested would put it on the speculative drawer (the watch list).
From a fundamental analysis standpoint, the quarterlies and annual financial statements still represent a company in exploration mode. The difference with any other junior is in the "associate" Puna Mining, which has been making money since the very beginning. They made a heap even with the pilot plant (I would have expected to be a loss as that is the nature of any R&D activity) and kept cashing as the 2022 FS shows.
To me, there won't be a 'revelation day' with the perfect announcement but Puna will start selling what they are producing and that income will be reflected in the quarterly FS. This will happen from the 1Q due by the end of this month and will become evident in 2Q. Even though info about Puna activities is really succinct, it will be picked up in valuations and reflected in the share price before any announcement.
The shorting is the reflection of AGY not disclosing much. But if they don't, it is because there is no need. And there is no need because those in the BoD and the substantial holders backing them up have plenty of visibility on how the industry would value AGY.
You've seen LTR. Same applies here.
AGY Price at posting:
41.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
