AGY 3.45% 9.0¢ argosy minerals limited

It's probably an unpopular opinion, but I'd actually like to see...

  1. 3,908 Posts.
    lightbulb Created with Sketch. 1536
    It's probably an unpopular opinion, but I'd actually like to see a bit of pre-emptive M&A from Jerko. Clearly the market isn't valuing AGY as it should, and I think there's mutually beneficial options out there to bring value to shareholders.

    For example, a merger of equals with DLI has the potential to create a mini-Allkem. AGY could pre-emptively conduct a 3:1 SP consolidation to bring it to ~96-99c per share with 466m SOI. DLI is currently ~87c per share with 520m SOI. Market caps are within $30m of each other right now (AGY $470m, DLI $443m), but importantly DLI has almost $100m in cash, versus $23.5m for AGY.

    The combined entity could look as follows:

    ~1b SOI
    ~90c SP
    ~AUD$900m Market cap
    ~AUD$120m cash on hand
    Mutually beneficial geographic stability diversified across three continents (South America, North America and Australia)
    Mix of products (brine and spodumene)
    2 ktpa brine operation (Rincon) generating around USD$40m per year from Jan 2024
    DSO sales (Mt Ida) from Jan 2024 (revenue unknown at this stage)
    Significant brine growth pipeline (10 and 25 ktpa expansions at Rincon)
    Significant spodumene growth pipeline (Mt Ida infill drilling and Yinnetharra)
    Cornerstone investment by Japanese petro-chemical company Idemitsu, along with investments from Gina Rinehart (Hancock Prospecting) and Mineral Resources

    With cash on hand, 2 ktpa Rincon sales and Mt Ida DSO sales, there should be sufficient profit to surge development of one operation at a time (i.e. focus on Rincon 10 ktpa expansion first, then fast-track Yinnetharra development at a later stage).

    I cannot see the market ignoring a merged operation of this nature. In a couple of years, the combined entity could go hunting for a spod junior in Quebec to really round things out. Likewise, they could acquire other junior brine operations in SA and exploit the knowledge they already have from developing Rincon. DLI's just an example (note that I hold). A merger could also be beneficial with other near term spod producers.

    Not going to happen, but I thought I'd throw it out there anyway. Just my thoughts while eagerly awaiting news from AGY.
 
watchlist Created with Sketch. Add AGY (ASX) to my watchlist
(20min delay)
Last
9.0¢
Change
0.003(3.45%)
Mkt cap ! $131.0M
Open High Low Value Volume
8.9¢ 9.5¢ 8.9¢ $174.4K 1.901M

Buyers (Bids)

No. Vol. Price($)
1 284548 9.0¢
 

Sellers (Offers)

Price($) Vol. No.
9.2¢ 12030 1
View Market Depth
Last trade - 16.10pm 05/07/2024 (20 minute delay) ?
AGY (ASX) Chart
arrow-down-2 Created with Sketch. arrow-down-2 Created with Sketch.